Guolian Minsheng Securities·2026-03-18 13:25Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the major airlines, including China National Aviation (China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and Spring Airlines) [2][7]. Core Insights - The air transport industry is experiencing a tight supply-demand situation leading to price increases, with domestic ticket prices rising by 19.9% year-on-year in February 2026 [10][11]. - The overall capacity growth in the industry has slowed, with domestic capacity growth lagging behind demand growth, resulting in an increase in passenger load factors [10][11]. - International routes are showing strong recovery, with a year-on-year increase in available seat kilometers (ASK) and revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) of 9.0% and 12.4%, respectively, in January-February 2026 [14][17]. Summary by Sections 1. Supply and Demand Dynamics - In January-February 2026, the overall supply growth in the industry slowed, with domestic ASK/RPK increasing by 3.2%/4.7% and a passenger load factor of 86.7%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [10][11]. - The international market is benefiting from strong demand recovery, with international ASK/RPK at 114.3%/115.3% compared to the same period in 2019 [14][17]. 2. Pricing Trends - The industry saw a year-on-year increase in ticket prices, with domestic economy class prices rising by 1.8% and international prices increasing by 14.1% [10][11]. - The report highlights that the rising fuel surcharge due to increased oil prices will likely lead to further increases in ticket prices, testing the elasticity of demand [10][14]. 3. Fleet Management - As of February 2026, the six major listed airlines managed a total of 3,377 aircraft, with a net decrease of 4 aircraft from the previous month [22][29]. - The report notes that China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines had the largest net reductions in fleet size, each losing 2 aircraft [22][29].