有色金属日报-20260318

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term balanced state with poor operability and a wait - and - see approach [1] - Alumina: ☆☆☆, similar to aluminum, a short - term balanced state [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ☆☆☆, short - term balanced state [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆, short - term balanced state [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★★★, a clearer upward trend and investment opportunity [1] - Tin: ☆☆☆, short - term balanced state [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ☆☆☆, short - term balanced state [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆, short - term balanced state [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★, a clearer upward trend and investment opportunity [1] Core Viewpoints - The investment opportunities and trends of various non - ferrous metals are affected by multiple factors such as market supply and demand, geopolitical risks, and macro - economic policies. Each metal has its own unique market situation and price movement characteristics [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - On Wednesday, Shanghai copper's open interest increased and the price dropped to 98,000, with a slight rebound at the end. The market focuses on high global copper inventory and domestic consumption. The current trading sentiment is mainly affected by the war situation. The SMM copper price is 98,990 yuan, with a Shanghai copper discount of 90 yuan and a Guangdong discount narrowing to 5 yuan/ton. Technically, pay attention to the resistance in the dense moving average area. Although the price decline is supported by spot buying interest, the uncertain war situation and high inventory may lead Shanghai copper to seek support at 98,000 or even the weekly line position [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum declined today, with spot discounts in East, Central, and South China expanding. The total social inventory of domestic aluminum ingots and bars reached 1.72 million tons, the highest in recent years. Overseas low inventory and production cuts in Qatar and Bahrain intensify supply concerns. Aluminum prices fluctuate sharply at historical highs. Cast aluminum alloy prices follow aluminum prices, and the price difference with Shanghai aluminum remains above 1,000 yuan under geopolitical risks. The domestic alumina operating capacity stabilizes around 94 million tons after a decline, and the oversupply situation improves. The short - term market is affected by Guinea's mineral control policy, and the actual impact on mining and exports needs further attention [2] Zinc - The SMM 0 zinc price has a discount of 95 yuan/ton to the near - month contract. After the price breaks through the support, it seeks support at the 23,000 integer level. Domestic zinc ingots need to reduce prices to destock before the price can stabilize. The zinc concentrate inventory of smelters has increased, and the domestic ore TC has rebounded. Due to concerns about the tightening of macro - liquidity, zinc prices are under pressure. The de - stocking rhythm in the peak season needs to be continuously tracked, and the annual oversupply expectation remains unchanged, with a general direction of short - selling on rebounds [3] Aluminum - The LME aluminum inventory is at a high level, and the import window is continuously open, with overseas oversupply pressure being transmitted to the domestic market. Shanghai aluminum rebounds, with the SMM 1 aluminum having a discount of 180 yuan/ton to the near - month contract and a scrap - to - primary aluminum price difference of 25 yuan/ton. The low - cost advantage of primary aluminum still suppresses the price. With recycled aluminum included in delivery, Shanghai aluminum moves towards a dual - pricing system of primary and recycled aluminum, and the price center of the futures contract is under pressure. The market is in a multi - and short - term game, and the price may fluctuate more during the process of finding a new price anchor. Pay attention to the opportunities of the end - of - cycle options [5] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel fluctuates in a narrow range with active trading. The market is worried about the Fed's liquidity control, and the strong US dollar exerts overall pressure on the market. The US dollar is at a one - year high with strong momentum. The spot price of Jinchuan nickel drops, and the price of high - nickel pig iron with a grade of 10 - 12% increases by 3 yuan per point, reaching 1,095 yuan per point. The upstream price rebound drives the mid - stream price up and provides cost support. In the short term, it is mainly driven by policy sentiment. The pure nickel inventory increases by 3,000 tons to 87,500 tons, and the stainless steel inventory decreases by 20,000 tons to 998,000 tons. Pay attention to further changes in Indonesia's policy, and the overall trend is weak and volatile [6] Tin - Shanghai tin fluctuates and closes down. The domestic spot tin price drops to 369,500 yuan, and the spot price has a significant premium over the 2604 contract after the contract month change. The domestic and foreign tin prices are under pressure at the MA60 moving average. The domestic spot is in the direction of export, waiting for the specific import data of tin resources in the previous two months. It is expected that the tin price may continue to oscillate weakly towards 350,000 yuan [7] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices decline under pressure, and market trading volume decreases. The macro - environment is trading on the decline of interest - rate cut expectations and risk appetite. The downstream production situation is good, and iron - lithium enterprises are still actively producing. The total market inventory decreases by 400 tons to 99,000 tons, and the overall de - stocking speed slows down. The change in inventory structure is notable, with the decline of smelter inventory slowing down and traders' confidence in stockpiling weakening, leading to selling to downstream. In terms of production, the lithium carbonate production in early March has returned to a high level, and the weekly production has reached a new high. The lithium carbonate futures price oscillates, and the fundamentals are stronger than expected. Consider going long on the near - month spread [8] Industrial Silicon - The decline of industrial silicon futures further expands. On the supply side, the weekly supply slightly rebounds. The production in the Southwest region is low, while the restart of leading enterprises in Xinjiang speeds up, and the operation in the Northwest main production area remains stable. On the demand side, the operation rate of silicone slightly rebounds, but downstream procurement is cautious, and price support is weak. The polysilicon market continues to weaken, the operation rate of small and medium - sized manufacturers declines, and the willingness to purchase raw materials is insufficient. The cost advantage caused by the previous geopolitical conflict gradually fades, and the market returns to fundamental - driven. It is expected that the industrial silicon price will maintain a weak and oscillating trend [9] Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon drops significantly, and the market is pessimistic. In March, the resumption of work of some small and medium - sized enterprises is postponed due to the weak market. As the "export rush" window for downstream approaches, the support from battery orders weakens, and the price is under pressure. The silicon wafer segment also weakens. According to SMM data, the inventory of polysilicon enterprises reaches 357,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9,000 tons, at a stage high. Overall, the previous policy expectations have gradually declined, and the market returns to a weak fundamental pattern. In the short term, polysilicon futures will continue to operate weakly. Continuously track the stocking sentiment in the silicon wafer segment, and pay attention to the support around 40,000 yuan/ton on the futures contract [10]