能源日报-20260318

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★★★ [1] - Asphalt: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The war in the Middle East has lasted for 19 days with no sign of easing, and the core variable of oil price trends depends on whether the Strait of Hormuz can resume smooth passage. Before the strait resumes safe passage, oil prices are likely to remain high, but market sentiment is cautious and price fluctuations may intensify [1]. - The market trading focus of fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil is on the actual passage capacity of the Strait of Hormuz. If the strait resumes passage, it will be a gradual process, and the supply constraint will not be immediately lifted. The supply of high-sulfur fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil is tight, and the market has strong support below, but prices will fluctuate widely [2]. - In April, the refining plan of local refineries decreased to 862,000 tons, and the inventory of refineries and social inventory are at a low level. With the improvement of the asphalt fundamentals and the momentum of supplementary increase, the BU futures price is expected to be strong, but attention should be paid to the potential pressure brought by the callback of crude oil prices [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Iran's national security leader was assassinated by Israel, and the war has not eased. Trump's call for an expanded shipping alliance has not received a positive response from NATO allies [1]. - An oil facility in the UAE's Fujairah port was attacked by drones, and oil loading and unloading operations were suspended. Iraq and the Kurds reached an agreement to resume oil exports through the Kurdish pipeline, with a daily transport capacity of at least 150,000 - 200,000 barrels from the Kirkuk oil field and an additional 210,000 barrels from the Kurdish region [1]. - The core variable of oil price trends depends on the Strait of Hormuz. The daily supply gap of more than 10 million barrels is difficult to fill, and short-term measures are not enough to stabilize oil prices. Strategic oil reserves are mainly for emergency use, and major Middle Eastern oil-producing countries are facing supply bottlenecks [1]. Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The market trading focus is on the passage capacity of the Strait of Hormuz. If ships can pass through smoothly, it may drive more non-European and American shipowners to follow, gradually alleviating the supply interruption expectation [2]. - Even if the strait resumes passage, it will be a gradual process, and the supply constraint will not be immediately lifted. The supply of high-sulfur fuel oil is tight due to raw material and product shipment blockages and energy facility attacks. The supply of low-sulfur fuel oil is also showing signs of contraction, and the refined oil cracking spread provides support [2]. Asphalt - In April, the refining plan of local refineries decreased to 862,000 tons, the lowest level in recent years. The shipment volume of sample refineries increased this week, and the cumulative year-on-year decline narrowed. The refinery inventory remained flat, and the social inventory was basically the same as the same period last year, with little commercial inventory pressure [3]. - Since the geopolitical conflict, the prices of crude oil and downstream petrochemical futures have generally risen, while the previous increase of asphalt was relatively lagging. In mid-March, with the improvement of the asphalt fundamentals and the momentum of supplementary increase, the BU futures price is expected to be strong, but attention should be paid to the potential pressure brought by the callback of crude oil prices [3].