金信期货日刊-20260319

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Today, the alumina futures rose by 3.4% due to Guinea's policy to restrict bauxite mining and exports, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, and rising shipping and import costs, along with market sentiment [3]. - In the short - term (1 - 2 weeks), the alumina futures will be in a strong - side shock with upward pressure. The main contract AO2605 will likely fluctuate between 2900 - 3200 yuan/ton [3]. - In the medium - term (1 - 2 months), the price will decline and return to the cost range of 2700 - 2900 yuan/ton as new production capacity is released and demand growth is slow [3]. - In the long - term, the price will be in a low - level shock, and only significant geopolitical escalation or policy changes can lead to a trend - like market [3]. - The stock market rebounded today after hitting a low, with shrinking trading volume. Technically, today's rise is a repair of yesterday's decline, and the 5 - minute level needs adjustment tomorrow morning. Short - term trading should follow the shock strategy [5][6]. - Gold's daily - level red - green line turns bearish, and it will maintain a weak - side shock. A short - selling strategy is recommended [10]. - For iron ore, supply is expected to be loose in the medium - to - long - term, and demand recovery needs time. Near the previous high, long - position holders should protect their profits [12][13]. - For glass, daily melting has declined and inventory has slightly decreased. In the short - term, it is affected by the overall commodity sentiment and should be treated as a wide - range shock before breaking through the upper pressure [16][17]. - For methanol, due to geopolitical factors in Iran, domestic methanol imports will be low for at least 1 - 2 months. As of March 18, 2026, the total port inventory was 126.17 tons, a decrease of 5.11 tons from the previous period [20]. - For pulp, the conflict in the Middle East has brought uncertainty to the Shanghai Pulp Week. Suppliers expect price increases, while Chinese buyers want price cuts [22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Alumina Futures - Price increase reason: Guinea's policy on bauxite, geopolitical conflicts, and cost increases [3]. - Short - term trend: Strong - side shock with upward pressure, main contract AO2605 in 2900 - 3200 yuan/ton [3]. - Medium - term trend: Decline and return to 2700 - 2900 yuan/ton [3]. - Long - term trend: Low - level shock, trend - like market needs special conditions [3]. Stock Market - Market performance: Rebounded after hitting a low, shrinking volume, technical repair [5][6]. - Trading strategy: Short - term shock strategy [5]. Gold - Market trend: Weak - side shock, short - selling strategy [10]. Iron Ore - Supply: Loose in the medium - to - long - term [13]. - Demand: Recovery needs time [12]. - Trading advice: Protect long - position profits near the previous high [12]. Glass - Supply and demand: Daily melting decline, inventory decrease, affected by overall commodity sentiment [16][17]. - Trading strategy: Wide - range shock before breaking through upper pressure [16]. Methanol - Supply: Low imports in the next 1 - 2 months due to geopolitical factors [20]. - Inventory: As of March 18, 2026, 126.17 tons, a decrease of 5.11 tons [20]. Pulp - Market situation: Uncertainty due to Middle East conflict, different price expectations between suppliers and buyers [22].