美联储维持利率不变！美伊冲突引爆不确定性

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75% in March, in line with market expectations, but the future interest rate path is unclear. The escalation of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has added complexity, and the Fed's concerns about inflation have increased, but it is not yet at the stage of needing to raise interest rates. The US dollar is expected to continue to strengthen in the short term [18]. - The situation between the US and Iran has escalated again, leading to a continuous decline in global stock markets. The A - share market showed a shrinking - volume V - shaped reversal, but in the short term, there are few opportunities in the market, and it is recommended to wait and see the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz [23]. - The central bank conducted 20.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. Although the US dollar and oil prices weakened during the bond futures trading session, with stocks and bonds strengthening, the news that the US has started to attack Iranian oil facilities has caused oil prices to strengthen again, and there are still negative disturbances in the bond market [3]. - The price of imported thermal coal in the market remained stable on March 18. Although the short - term price is stable, there is still an upward risk in the previous period. It is necessary to wait for external situation changes [4]. - Due to the Israeli attack on Iranian energy facilities, the weak fundamentals of zinc and the resonance of capital risk - aversion have led to a short - term continuation of the weak and volatile trend of zinc prices, and it is advisable to wait for the full release of market sentiment [5]. - After the Israeli attack on the Iranian gas field and Iran's vow to retaliate, oil prices have risen significantly, and the safety risk of energy facilities in the Middle East has increased significantly [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Powell stated that most people do not consider raising interest rates as the basic expectation. If there is no progress in inflation, the Fed will not cut interest rates. The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75% in March, in line with market expectations. The US PPI in February increased more than expected, which increased short - term inflation pressure and reduced the Fed's willingness to cut interest rates. In the short term, precious metals will continue the weak and volatile trend. It is recommended to wait for the callback to buy gold, and silver performs weaker than gold [11][13][14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US producer price in February increased more than expected. The Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged in March, but the future economic outlook is unclear. Due to the impact of the US - Iran war on the US economy being uncertain, the Fed tends to continue observing. Overall, the Fed's concerns about inflation have increased, but it is not yet at the stage of needing to raise interest rates. The US dollar is expected to continue to rise in the short term [15][18][19]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Iran launched a large - scale missile attack on US - related energy facilities. The Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged, and Powell's statement was significantly hawkish, emphasizing the risk of rising oil prices on inflation and even mentioning the possibility of raising interest rates. The market's expectation of interest rate cuts has cooled again. In the short term, the US stock market will still operate weakly, and it is recommended to take a risk - averse and wait - and - see approach [20][21][22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The A - share market showed a shrinking - volume V - shaped reversal. Due to the escalation of the US - Iran situation, global stock markets continued to decline, and risk - aversion trading dominated. In the short term, there are few opportunities in the market, and it is recommended to wait and see the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz. The stock index strategy should adopt a low - position risk - aversion approach [23][24]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 20.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 6 billion yuan on the day. Although the US dollar and oil prices weakened during the bond futures trading session, with stocks and bonds strengthening, the news that the US has started to attack Iranian oil facilities has caused oil prices to strengthen again, and there are still negative disturbances in the bond market. In the short term, the cost - performance of short - selling is slightly higher than that of long - buying [25][26]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Thermal Coal) - On March 18, the price of imported thermal coal in the market remained stable. Due to factors such as the Ramadan in Indonesia and the incomplete implementation of RKAB, the mines' price - holding sentiment continued. The supply of low - calorie coal was tight, and the international coal shipping cost continued to rise, resulting in a decrease in the circulation of market cargoes and high landed costs of imported coal. In the short term, the price of thermal coal is stable, but there is an upward risk in the previous period, and it is necessary to wait for external situation changes [27][28]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - BHP announced that Brandon Craig will replace Mike Henry as the CEO. The demand for iron ore started weakly after the Spring Festival, and the overseas demand under external conflicts is highly uncertain. The steel mills are still in the process of small - scale resumption of production, and the overall supply - demand fundamentals are weak. The cost of iron ore has increased by about $5 due to the increase in overseas energy prices. It is expected that the price of iron ore will continue to be in a volatile market [31]. 3.2.3 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In February, China's automobile exports increased significantly, while the exports of steel plates and bars decreased. The steel price showed an obvious decline after rising during the day, indicating that the market lacks a trend - driving force. The inventory inflection point of finished steel products is approaching, but the subsequent inventory reduction speed is still uncertain. The demand for building materials is weak, and the terminal manufacturing demand for coils is differentiated. The Middle East situation has also had an impact on steel exports. In the short term, it is recommended to treat the market with a volatile mindset, and the upward space of steel prices is limited [33]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia's palm oil inventory in December decreased significantly. The overall decline in the oil market yesterday was mainly due to the weakening of international crude oil prices. Brazil plans to raise the biodiesel blending ratio to 16%, and Indonesia is considering resuming B50, increasing the linkage between the oil market and the energy market. In the short term, the oil market is mainly dominated by crude oil trends and national biofuel policies. It is recommended to participate in long positions at low prices or wait and see [34][35]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - As of March 13, the inventory of domestic and foreign - traded corn in Guangdong Port decreased, while the inventory of imported sorghum increased and that of imported barley decreased. The inventory of corn in the four northern ports increased, and the throughput also increased. The consumption of corn by deep - processing enterprises increased. The supply side is affected by factors such as farmers' reluctance to sell and the increase in grain sources. The downstream demand has rigid support, but there is no large - scale replenishment. In the short term, the market is in a state of multi - empty game. In the long term, the corn price is expected to stabilize and rebound, and it is necessary to pay attention to the rhythm of grassroots grain supply, reserve procurement policies, and wheat auction dynamics [36][39][40]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - Tangrenshen's sow production capacity utilization rate was basically at full - load production at the end of 2025. The pig - breeding industry is in a critical and painful period of "market - oriented deep - loss production reduction". In the short term, the supply peak and the pressure of passive inventory accumulation still dominate the market. It is recommended to short on rallies for near - month contracts and wait and see for far - month contracts [42][43]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Platinum) - The prices of platinum and palladium declined. The geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran has intensified, and the risk - aversion sentiment of funds has dominated the market, suppressing non - ferrous and precious metals. The fundamental driving force of platinum and palladium has weakened compared with the end of last year. In the short term, platinum and palladium may continue the weak and volatile performance, and platinum may perform better than palladium. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the opportunity of long - platinum and short - palladium in the medium term [44][45][46]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The price of lead was weak and volatile, mainly due to macro - level drag. The LME inventory remained unchanged, and the domestic social inventory increased, suppressing the lead price. There is cost support for lead, and the downstream purchasing power has increased, but the terminal consumption is still weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the medium term [48]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The price of zinc continued to decline, mainly due to the intensification of the US - Iran conflict and the risk - aversion sentiment of funds. The LME inventory decreased slightly, and the domestic social inventory reached a high level in the past five years, dragging down the zinc price. Although the downstream production has gradually returned to normal, most manufacturers are still waiting and seeing. In the short term, the zinc price may continue the weak and volatile trend, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the medium term [49][50]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Core Lithium plans to restart the Finniss lithium mine, with an annual production capacity of 214,000 tons of lithium concentrate SC6. The supply of lithium ore is tight, and the demand for power batteries is still uncertain. In the short term, the direct demand for lithium carbonate is supported, but in the long term, the new energy substitution narrative provides support. It is recommended to pay attention to buying on significant dips [52][53][55]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The LME tin inventory increased, and the domestic futures warehouse receipts decreased. The supply side has a strong expectation of repair, and the demand side is weak. It is expected that the tin price will fluctuate in the short term [56][57]. 3.2.12 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Iran attacked the US - exclusive area of the Riyadh refinery, and Israel attacked the Iranian gas field, causing Iran to vow to retaliate. Oil prices have risen significantly, and the safety risk of energy facilities in the Middle East has increased significantly, which will further boost the risk premium [57][58][59]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The capacity utilization rate of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt has decreased. Due to the shortage of raw materials, the supply has decreased significantly, and the risk of asphalt supply interruption has increased. The geopolitical risk has further increased, and the asphalt price is still prone to rise and difficult to fall [60][61]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (LLDPE) - As of March 18, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises decreased, and the LLDPE inventory decreased significantly. The decrease in inventory is due to reduced supply and increased downstream purchasing. It is expected that the inventory will continue to decrease, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction speed [62][63]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The inventory of Chinese urea enterprises decreased. The urea futures price has been oscillating at a high level recently. With the continuation of the Iranian conflict, overseas urea prices have risen sharply. However, the policy guidance has been strengthened, and the upper limit of the urea 05 contract will be restricted. It is recommended that market participants replenish inventory based on rigid demand and reduce speculative operations [64][66]. 3.2.16 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The acquisition of ZIM by Hapag - Lloyd is facing strict review by Israeli regulatory authorities. The spot market quotes are showing a differentiated trend. Although the supply of shipping capacity in April is expected to be large, some shipping companies have raised their quotes, laying the foundation for the increase in freight rates in April. It is recommended to maintain a bullish and volatile mindset and pay attention to the impact of oil price fluctuations on the European - line market [67][68].