申万宏源证券晨会报告-20260319

Core Insights - The report highlights significant trends in the optical communication industry, emphasizing the emergence of NPO and XPO as new battlegrounds for leading manufacturers, and the full introduction of 400G/lambda technology, indicating the arrival of the 3.2T era [3][11] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a rise in domestic computing chips, with a peak in capital expenditure across all segments, benefiting local semiconductor equipment manufacturers [3][11] - The simulation industry is entering a price increase cycle, driven by overseas manufacturers raising prices, which creates opportunities for domestic platform-based simulation companies [3][13] Optical Communication Industry - Key trends identified include the acceleration of technological differentiation among Chinese manufacturers and the dominance of pluggable modules in the Scale-out market, with expectations for 800G/1.6T modules to lead the AIDC optical interconnect market from 2026 to 2027 [11] - The report identifies major investment targets within the AI computing network supply chain, including companies like Zhongji Xuchuang, NewEase, and Tianfu Communication [11][20] Semiconductor Industry - The report notes that the Chinese AI chip market is expected to explode, with local 7nm/6nm process platforms projected to expand to nearly 20% market share by 2026, and a significant increase in demand for advanced packaging capabilities [11][12] - The semiconductor equipment market in mainland China is expected to continue leading globally, with local manufacturers benefiting from high capital expenditure [11][12] Simulation Industry - The report outlines two main directions for investment: the price increase cycle initiated by overseas manufacturers and the growing demand for domestic GPU power supply chips, which is expected to exceed 4 billion yuan in market size over the next three years [13][15] - Key investment targets include companies like Jiehuate and Nanchip Technology, which are positioned to benefit from the surge in demand for AI power supply solutions [13][15]