宏观预期偏负面，基本金属进一步下探

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - economic outlook is negative due to factors such as the US - Israel joint strike on Iran, which has reduced Middle East crude oil supply, pushed up oil prices, and raised inflation risks, thus weakening the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. Basic metals are under pressure in the short - term, but aluminum prices are expected to remain strong. In the medium - term, the duration of the US - Iran war and oil price trends need to be monitored [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情观点 - Copper: The US dollar index rebounds, putting pressure on copper prices. With increasing energy prices, US inflation risks rise, and the US dollar's safe - haven property boosts the index. Copper ore supply is tight, and the smelting profit is falling, leading to an expected contraction in refined copper supply. As the demand peak season approaches, the inventory accumulation of refined copper slows down. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate [5]. - Alumina: The alumina price strengthens in the short - term due to renewed disturbances in the ore end. Although the upstream - downstream balance has improved, it is still slightly in surplus. The cost is supported by rising shipping and auxiliary material prices, while the demand is pressured by electrolytic aluminum production disturbances. Alumina is expected to have a wide - range oscillation [6]. - Aluminum: Geopolitical conflicts are highly uncertain, causing a slight decline in aluminum prices. The domestic production capacity is stable, while overseas supply is disturbed. The initial - stage operating rate has slightly recovered, but high prices suppress demand. Social inventory continues to accumulate. Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term and may rise in the medium - term [7][8]. - Aluminum alloy: The cost support continues, and the price drops slightly. The cost is supported by the high - priced scrap aluminum, and the supply is constrained by policies. The demand is affected by the weakening subsidy policy. The price is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - and medium - term [9][15]. - Zinc: LME zinc inventory accumulates significantly, and zinc prices decline. The macro - economic slowdown concerns increase, but the situation has slightly improved. The zinc supply is increasing, while the demand is average. Zinc prices may oscillate in the short - term and have a downward trend in the long - term [11][12]. - Lead: The cost support is stable, and lead prices stop falling and rebound. The spot discount widens, and the production of lead ingots increases. Although the demand for electric bicycles is weak, the lead - acid battery operating rate will rise. Lead prices are expected to oscillate [16][17]. - Nickel: High visible inventory suppresses the market, and the price oscillates. The nickel supply pressure eases slightly, but the inventory remains high. The adjustment of Indonesia's nickel ore quota affects the market's balance expectation. Nickel prices are expected to be volatile and strong [17][18][19]. - Stainless steel: The high price of nickel - iron supports the stainless - steel market, and the price oscillates. The cost is supported, and the production is expected to increase in March. The terminal demand is cautious. Stainless - steel prices are expected to be volatile and strong [20][21]. - Tin: Market sentiment weakens, and tin prices are under pressure. The supply in Wabang and Indonesia is expected to increase, while the supply in Congo (Kinshasa) is at high risk. The tin ore supply is tight, and the demand is growing. Tin prices are expected to oscillate [22]. 3.2行情监测 - Commodity Index: On March 18, 2026, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all declined, with decreases of 0.38%, 0.36%, and 0.31% respectively [150]. - Non - ferrous Metals Index: On March 18, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index fell by 0.94% on the day, 1.58% in the past 5 days, 0.52% in the past month, and 0.43% since the beginning of the year [152].