中国期货每日简报-20260319

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - On March 18, equity index futures were mixed, and most commodities dropped, with New Energy Metals leading the decline. In equity index futures, IC rose 0.8%, and IH dropped 0.4%. In commodity futures, the top three gainers were Methanol, Ethylene Glycol, and Fiberboard, while the top three decliners were Poly - Silicon, Lithium Carbonate, and Chinese Jujube [10][12][13]. - Gold remains in high - level consolidation with solid medium - term support. It may trade in a high range in the short term and its medium - term performance depends on energy shocks and growth prospects [16][18][19]. - Silver's upward momentum has slowed, and volatility may remain elevated. It is expected to maintain high - level consolidation in the near term, and if precious metals allocation demand spreads, it has room for catch - up gains [22][24][25]. - Tin supply risks remain elevated, and tin prices still have bottom support, but are expected to trade range - bound in the medium to short term due to weak macro sentiment and supply improvement expectations [28][30][31]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 China Futures - Overview - On March 18, equity index futures were mixed, and most commodities dropped. New Energy Metals led the drop. In equity index futures, IC rose 0.8%, and IH dropped 0.4%. In commodity futures, Methanol rose 3.3% with open - interest increasing 7.9% month - on - month, Ethylene Glycol gained 1.1% with open - interest increasing 0.1% month - on - month, and Fiberboard advanced 1.1% with open - interest decreasing 58.6% month - on - month. The top three decliners were Poly - Silicon (down 5.1% with open - interest increasing 1.4% month - on - month), Lithium Carbonate (down 4.4% with open - interest decreasing 0.5% month - on - month), and Chinese Jujube (down 2.8% with open - interest decreasing 9.7% month - on - month) [10][11][13]. 3.2 China Futures - Daily Drop 3.2.1 Gold - On March 18, the Gold main contract dropped 0.2% to 1113.52 yuan/g (SHFE). Middle - East tensions, energy infrastructure attacks, and Strait of Hormuz disruptions provide safe - haven and inflation - hedge premiums. High oil prices heighten inflation risks and dampen Fed rate - cut expectations, weighing on gold in the short term. However, gold's medium - term allocation value is prominent, and Asian demand offers downside support. In the short term, it may trade in a high range, and its medium - term performance depends on energy shocks and growth prospects [16][17][19]. 3.2.2 Silver - On March 18, the Silver main contract dropped 2.4% to 19980 yuan/kg (SHFE). It is supported by geopolitical safe - haven demand and inflation expectations but has weaker financial attributes than gold. Short - term performance is more sensitive to risk sentiment and interest rate expectations. Current high - interest - rate expectations constrain its valuation. If stagflation pricing deepens, its volatility may remain higher than gold. In the near term, it is expected to maintain high - level consolidation, and if precious metals allocation demand spreads, it has room for catch - up gains [22][23][25]. 3.2.3 Tin - On March 18, the Tin main contract dropped 2.6% to 370000 yuan/ton (SHFE). Supply risks remain high, and tin prices have bottom support, but there are no short - term drivers due to macro headwinds. Supply is expected to improve as Wa State restarts mines and Indonesia raises its production target, while the DRC situation keeps supply risks high. Demand from the semiconductor and new - energy vehicle sectors is strong. Overall, tin prices are expected to trade range - bound in the medium to short term [28][29][31]. 3.3 China News - Macro News - Trump has confirmed the postponement of his visit to China, and China and the US will maintain communications on this matter [34]. - The National Development and Reform Commission has rolled out a new batch of 13 landmark major foreign investment projects with a planned total investment of $13.4 billion, including logistics projects for the first time [34]. - The Iranian President has confirmed the death of Ali Larijani [34]. - Trump has said that the US should consider withdrawing from NATO [34].