Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - For sugar, due to the current continuous discount of raw sugar price to the Brazilian ethanol conversion price and the increase in crude oil price caused by geopolitical risks, there is a possibility of reducing the proportion of sugar cane for sugar production in the new Brazilian sugar - cane crushing season after April this year, leading to sugar production reduction. In China, at the end of the crushing season, the pressure of production increase eases, and with potential positive factors for raw sugar in the future, sugar prices may still have room for rebound. The strategy is to try to go long on price pullbacks [3]. - For cotton, the newly issued 300,000 - ton import quota in China is a short - term negative factor for Zhengzhou cotton prices. In the medium term, the current downstream operating rate has returned to the same level as last year, which is neutral. Future price trends mainly depend on downstream operating conditions, and the short - term strategy is to turn to a wait - and - see approach [6]. - For protein meal, the March USDA report is neutral. Affected by the geopolitical crisis, the short - term crude oil price fluctuates sharply, driving the protein meal price to fluctuate significantly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [9]. - For oils and fats, affected by the outbreak of the geopolitical crisis, the short - term sharp increase in crude oil prices drives the prices of oils and fats to strengthen. On the other hand, before the end of the US - Iran event, the crude oil price remains at a high level, and Indonesia is expected to tighten palm oil exports. The medium - term view is to be bullish on oils and fats [13]. - For eggs, although the production capacity is on a downward trend, the absolute supply level is still high, and the pace of capacity reduction slows down due to expectations, with a post - poned supply expectation. On the other hand, the spot price is affected by pulsed demand, showing a relatively strong overall trend, but the future price increase space and sustainability are questionable, resulting in a relatively high valuation of the near - month contract on the futures market. The strategy is to short on rebounds for the near - term contracts, and pay attention to the support brought by cost increases for the far - term contracts [15]. - For pigs, considering that the weight and theoretical slaughter volume are still high, although the inventory of small - scale farmers is low, the enthusiasm for second - round fattening is insufficient under the current price difference between fat and standard pigs, so the support for the market is limited. The short - term spot price is expected to remain weakly stable. Pay attention to the additional pressure on the spot price caused by the diminishing marginal effect of weight gain after the increase in feed prices. The near - term futures contracts maintain a premium structure, and the strategy is to short on rebounds; for the far - term contracts, there is an expectation of capacity reduction, but the upward driving force of the spot price is insufficient, resulting in an excessive premium, so it is recommended to wait and see [18]. Summary by Category Sugar - Market Information: From January to February 2026, China imported 280,000 tons and 240,000 tons of sugar respectively, an increase of 220,000 tons each compared with the same period last year, with a total increase of 440,000 tons. In February, the cumulative sugar production in China was 9.26 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 455,000 tons; the monthly sugar sales were 750,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 266,000 tons; the industrial inventory was 5.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 840,000 tons. As of March 15, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - cane crushing season, India's cumulative sugar production was 26.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.49 million tons; Thailand's sugar production reached 10.27 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 545,000 tons. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicted at the end of February that due to lower - than - expected sugar production in India and Thailand, the global sugar production in the 2025/26 sugar - cane crushing season is expected to be 181.29 million tons [2]. - Strategy: Try to go long on price pullbacks [3]. Cotton - Market Information: From January to February 2026, China imported 210,000 tons and 170,000 tons of cotton respectively, an increase of 60,000 tons and 50,000 tons compared with the same period last year; imported 160,000 tons and 130,000 tons of cotton yarn respectively, an increase of 60,000 tons and 20,000 tons compared with the same period last year. The National Development and Reform Commission issued an additional 300,000 - ton tariff - rate quota for processing trade imports with preferential tariff rates. From February 26 to March 5, the US exported 35,800 tons of cotton in the current year, with a cumulative export of 2.0865 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 163,900 tons; the export to China in that week was 1,800 tons, with a cumulative export of 100,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 90,200 tons. As of the week of March 13, the spinning mill operating rate was 76%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points from the previous week; the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 390,000 tons. The USDA predicted in March that the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season would be 26.34 million tons, an increase of 240,000 tons from the February prediction and 540,000 tons from the previous year; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 64.42%, an increase of 1.15 percentage points from the February prediction and 2.4 percentage points from the previous year. The predicted US cotton production in March was 3.03 million tons, the same as the February prediction, with the export forecast unchanged and the inventory - to - consumption ratio at 30.43%, unchanged from the previous month. Brazil's production forecast increased by 160,000 tons to 4.25 million tons; India's production forecast remained at 5.12 million tons; China's production increased by 100,000 tons to 7.73 million tons [4]. - Strategy: Turn to a wait - and - see approach in the short term [6]. Protein Meal - Market Information: AgRural's latest forecast for Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season is 178 million tons, a decrease of 3 million tons from the previous forecast; StoneX's latest forecast is 177.8 million tons, a decrease of 3.8 million tons from the previous forecast. From February 26 to March 5, the US exported 380,000 tons of soybeans, with a cumulative export of 36.49 million tons in the current year, a year - on - year decrease of 7.7 million tons; the export to China in that week was 80,000 tons, with a cumulative export of 10.82 million tons to China in the current year, a year - on - year decrease of 10.9 million tons. As of the week of March 13, 2026, the arrival of domestic sample soybeans was 15.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.19 million tons; the sample soybean port inventory was 5.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.19 million tons. The USDA predicted in March that the global soybean production in the 2025/26 season would be 42.717 million tons, a decrease of 990,000 tons from the February prediction and an increase of 28,000 tons from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.54%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points from February and 0.3 percentage points from the previous year. The predicted US soybean production was 11.599 million tons, the same as the February prediction; Brazil's production was predicted to be 18 million tons, the same as the February prediction; Argentina's production was predicted to be 4.8 million tons, a decrease of 500,000 tons from the February prediction. In the March prediction, the US export volume forecast remained at 4.286 million tons [8]. - Strategy: Wait and see in the short term [9]. Oils and Fats - Market Information: The President of Indonesia stated that Indonesian coal, crude palm oil and its derivative production enterprises are not allowed to export relevant products before meeting domestic demand to ensure national energy and important commodity supply security. The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA) data showed that from March 1 - 10, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 1.55% month - on - month, the fresh fruit bunch yield per unit area increased by 4.29%, and the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.52%. The Deputy Minister of Energy of Indonesia said that the government is studying the possibility of restarting the B50 mandatory blending policy in the middle of this year. The Indonesian Bureau of Statistics data showed that in January 2026, Indonesia's total palm oil exports were 2.3 million tons, a decrease of 490,000 tons from the previous month and an increase of 860,000 tons from the same period last year. The MPOB data showed that in February, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.28 million tons, a decrease of 300,000 tons from the previous month and an increase of 90,000 tons from the same period last year; the export volume was 1.13 million tons, a decrease of 330,000 tons from the previous month and an increase of 130,000 tons from the same period last year; the inventory was 2.7 million tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons from the previous month and an increase of 1.19 million tons from the same period last year. AmSpec data showed that from March 1 - 15, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil product exports were 921,000 tons, a 56.9% increase from the same period last month; ITS data showed that the exports were 926,000 tons, a 43.5% increase from the same period last month. The Indian Solvent Extractors' Association (SEA) data showed that as of the end of February, India's vegetable oil inventory was 1.87 million tons, an increase of 120,000 tons from the previous month and basically the same as the same period last year. As of the week of March 13, the domestic sample data of the three major oils and fats inventory was 2.01 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 70,000 tons [11][12]. - Strategy: Be bullish on oils and fats in the medium term [13]. Eggs - Market Information: Yesterday, the national egg price was mainly stable. The average price in the main producing areas decreased slightly by 0.01 yuan to 3.15 yuan per catty. The price of large - sized eggs in Heishan remained unchanged at 2.95 yuan per catty, and the price in Guantao remained at 2.98 yuan per catty. The supply was stable, the downstream sales speed varied, most traders were confident about the future market, the inventory at each link was stable, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was stable. It is expected that today's national egg price will be mostly stable, with individual prices rising or falling [14]. - Strategy: Short on rebounds for the near - term contracts, and pay attention to the support brought by cost increases for the far - term contracts [15]. Pigs - Market Information: Yesterday, the national egg price mostly remained stable with a few increases. The average price in the main producing areas increased by 0.02 yuan to 3.17 yuan per catty. The price of large - sized eggs in Heishan increased by 0.05 yuan to 3 yuan per catty, and the price in Guantao remained at 2.98 yuan per catty. The supply was normal, the downstream digestion speed varied, most traders were confident about the future market, the inventory at each link was stable, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was stable. It is expected that today's national egg price will be mostly stable with a few increases [17]. - Strategy: Short on rebounds for the near - term contracts; wait and see for the far - term contracts [18].
五矿期货农产品早报-20260319
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-03-19 01:07