格林大华期货早盘提示：贵金属-20260319

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - COMEX gold futures dropped 3.68% to $4,823.90 per ounce, COMEX silver futures dropped 5.63% to $75.42 per ounce; Shanghai gold night - trading session closed down 2.23% at 1088.90 yuan per gram, Shanghai silver closed down 4.44% at 19,170 yuan per kilogram. The market short - term uncertainty is high, and investors should control positions and prevent risks [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Quotes - COMEX gold futures fell 3.68% to $4,823.90 per ounce, COMEX silver futures fell 5.63% to $75.42 per ounce. Shanghai gold night - trading session closed down 2.23% at 1088.90 yuan per gram, Shanghai silver closed down 4.44% at 19,170 yuan per kilogram [1] - The U.S. dollar index rose 0.74% to 100.30, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield rose nearly 6.5 basis points to 4.265% [2] 3.2. Important Information - On March 18, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, decreased by 2.571 tons to 1066.993 tons; the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, decreased by 125.35 tons to 15,264.4 tons [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 0%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 100%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively by June is 11.2%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 88.8%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged by July is 77.4% [1] - The U.S. February PPI rose 3.4% year - on - year (expected 3.0%, previous 2.8%), and rose 0.7% month - on - month (estimated 0.3%, previous 0.5%); the core PPI rose 3.9% year - on - year (expected 3.7%, previous 3.5%), and rose 0.5% month - on - month (expected 0.3%, previous 0.8%) [1] - At the Fed's March interest - rate meeting early today, the federal funds rate was kept unchanged, meeting market expectations. The Fed pointed out the uncertainty of the Middle - East impact, raised inflation expectations, and still expected one interest - rate cut this year. Powell said no rate cuts until inflation improves [1] - U.S. media reported that the U.S. wants to destroy Iran's military power and end the war as soon as possible, while Israel insists on hunting down Iranian leaders. Trump hopes Israel to suspend further attacks on Iranian energy facilities. Iranian energy facilities were attacked, and Iran vowed to strike back at the oil facilities of three Middle - East countries [1] 3.3. Market Logic - On Wednesday, the attack on Iran's South Pars petrochemical facilities caused a sharp rise in international crude oil prices. The U.S. February producer price index rose 3.4% year - on - year, higher than the market estimate. Traders further reduced their bets on Fed rate cuts in 2026. The Fed's March interest - rate meeting decided to keep the federal funds rate unchanged, meeting market expectations [1] - The expansion of the U.S. - Iran conflict to civilian oil facilities led to a sharp rise in international crude oil prices, suppressing COMEX gold and silver prices, which found support at around $4800 per ounce for gold and $75 per ounce for silver [2] 3.4. Trading Strategy - Due to high short - term market uncertainty, investors should control positions and prevent risks [2]