3月FOMC会议点评：重新加息或仍未进入美联储的政策选择中

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the interest rate unchanged in the range of 3.5%-3.75% during the March FOMC meeting[4] - The Fed's internal divisions have slightly narrowed, with only one member voting for a 25 basis point rate cut[4] - The Fed has raised its GDP growth forecasts for 2026-2028, with the 2026 GDP growth forecast adjusted to 2.4%, up by 0.1 percentage points[5][17] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Inflation - The Fed has increased its inflation forecasts, with the 2026 PCE and core PCE both projected at 2.7%, up by 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points respectively from December 2025[16][17] - The unemployment rate forecast for 2026 remains at 4.4%, while the 2027 forecast has been raised to 4.3%[17] - Fed Chair Powell indicated that a rate hike is not the baseline scenario, emphasizing that current rates are at the high end of neutral[20] Group 3: Market Reactions and Risks - Following the Fed's announcement, the Dow Jones index fell by 1.63% and the Nasdaq index dropped by 1.46%[7][30] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to slightly above 4.25%[30] - Market risk appetite has slightly decreased due to uncertainties surrounding the Middle East situation, which could impact inflation and economic growth[30][33]