五矿期货早报|有色金属：有色金属日报2026-3-19-20260319

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the supply - demand expectations for copper are improving, the stabilization and rebound of copper prices still require the support of a缓和 macro - sentiment. The reference range for the main contract of Shanghai copper today is 93,000 - 97,000 yuan/ton; the reference range for the LME 3M copper is 12,000 - 12,500 US dollars/ton [2]. - The risk of the Middle East war escalating exists. The overseas aluminum supply threat remains large, and the low overseas inventory and strong spot are expected to continue. The domestic downstream start - up rate continues to rise, and the large import loss supports the domestic price. The aluminum price is expected to remain strong in the short term. The reference range for the main contract of Shanghai aluminum today is 24,500 - 25,200 yuan/ton; the reference range for the LME 3M aluminum is 3,360 - 3,480 US dollars/ton [5]. - The short - term lead price is supported, but it is necessary to observe the resumption of production of secondary smelters and the sustainability of battery enterprise orders. There is a possibility of further decline in the lead price [8]. - The zinc price has formed a downward trend. It is necessary to pay attention to the accumulation of zinc ingot social inventory and be vigilant against the risks caused by the escalation of geopolitical conflicts and unexpected macro - policies [11]. - The tin price is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 350,000 - 420,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the overseas LME tin is 45,000 - 53,000 US dollars/ton [14]. - The nickel price is expected to fluctuate. The reference range for the Shanghai nickel price this week is 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the LME 3M nickel contract is 16,000 - 20,000 US dollars/ton. It is recommended to operate within the range [17]. - The lithium carbonate contract is expected to fluctuate within a range. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract today is 140,000 - 157,000 yuan/ton [20]. - For alumina, it is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see strategy. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton, and it is necessary to focus on domestic supply contraction policies, Guinean ore policies, and the US - Iran conflict [23]. - The stainless - steel price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term. The reference range for the main contract is 13,800 - 14,350 yuan/ton [26]. - The price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to remain high in the short term [29]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Market Information - Due to the attack on Iranian oil facilities and the strengthening of crude oil prices, the copper price broke through and declined. The LME 3M copper contract closed down 3.44% to 12,340 US dollars/ton, and the main contract of Shanghai copper closed at 96,340 yuan/ton. The LME inventory increased by 3,725 to 334,100 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio declined. The domestic SHFE daily warehouse receipts decreased by 0.6 to 319,000 tons. The spot discount in the East China region narrowed to 90 yuan/ton, and the spot discount in the Guangdong region was 5 yuan/ton. The domestic copper spot import profit was about 300 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference narrowed to near 0 [1]. Strategy Viewpoint - The risk of the Middle East war escalating exists. The high crude oil price increases the pressure of inflation and economic weakness, and the sentiment is still suppressed. The copper concentrate smelting fee continues to decline, and the tension at the mine end has increased. The domestic copper downstream has basically completed the resumption of work and production, and the consumption performance is close to the same period in previous years. The supply - demand relationship is expected to continue to improve. However, the stabilization and rebound of copper prices still require the support of a缓和 macro - sentiment [2]. Aluminum Market Information - Due to the attack on Iranian oil facilities and the strengthening of oil prices, the aluminum price was strong. The LME 3M aluminum contract closed up 1.63% to 3,419 US dollars/ton, and the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 24,835 yuan/ton. The position of the weighted contract of Shanghai aluminum decreased by 1.0 to 635,000 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.1 to 392,000 tons. The inventory of aluminum ingots in three places increased month - on - month, and the inventory of aluminum rods decreased month - on - month. The processing fee of aluminum rods rebounded, and the transaction was average. The spot discount of aluminum ingots in the East China region narrowed to 200 yuan/ton. The LME inventory decreased by 0.4 to 437,000 tons, the cancellation warrant ratio declined, and Cash/3M maintained a premium [4]. Strategy Viewpoint - The risk of the Middle East war escalating exists. The uncertainty of the passage of the Strait of Hormuz is large, and the concern about the interruption of energy supply in the Middle East has increased. The overseas aluminum supply threat remains large, and the low overseas inventory and strong spot are expected to continue. The domestic downstream start - up rate continues to rise, the proportion of molten aluminum has returned to a relatively normal level, and the large import loss supports the domestic price. The aluminum price is expected to remain strong in the short term [5]. Lead Market Information - On Wednesday, the Shanghai lead index closed up 0.31% to 16,654 yuan/ton, and the total unilateral trading position was 133,000 lots. As of 15:00 on Wednesday, the LME 3S lead increased by 10 to 1,931.5 US dollars/ton compared with the previous day, and the total position was 188,000 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,550 yuan/ton, the average price of secondary refined lead was 16,525 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 25 yuan/ton. The average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,875 yuan/ton. The lead ingot futures inventory of the SHFE was 67,000 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 180 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 5 yuan/ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 284,400 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancellation warrant was 5,300 tons. The basis of the overseas cash - 3S contract was - 45.31 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 139.3 US dollars/ton. After excluding the exchange rate, the Shanghai - London price ratio of the disk was 1.259, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 692.66 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets on March 16 was 80,100 tons, an increase of 2,400 tons compared with March 12 [7]. Strategy Viewpoint - The visible inventory of lead concentrate has decreased slightly, and the lead concentrate TC has stopped falling and stabilized. The profit of primary smelting has回调 due to the silver price, and the start - up rate of primary lead has gradually recovered, and the inventory of primary factories has decreased. The visible inventory of lead waste has continued to decline, the profit of secondary lead smelting has been deeply pressured, the start - up rate of secondary lead smelters has recovered limitedly, and the inventory of secondary factories has decreased. The start - up rate of downstream battery enterprises has recovered, but the procurement has not improved. The inventory of distributors in February has been well destocked, and the pressure on finished product inventory has been reduced. Currently, the lead ingot import window is wide open, the export of lead batteries has decreased, and the overseas surplus of deliverable inventory flowing into the domestic market has suppressed the price. The destocking situation of monthly battery finished product inventory has improved. On March 16, there were large net long orders from long - position seats, which may be strategic hedging purchases by battery enterprises. The short - term lead price is supported. However, it is still necessary to observe the resumption of production of secondary smelters and the sustainability of battery enterprise orders, and there is a possibility of further decline in the lead price [8]. Zinc Market Information - On Wednesday, the Shanghai zinc index closed down 1.61% to 23,349 yuan/ton, and the total unilateral trading position was 205,700 lots. As of 15:00 on Wednesday, the LME 3S zinc decreased by 37.5 to 3,217 US dollars/ton compared with the previous day, and the total position was 214,500 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 23,200 yuan/ton, the basis in Shanghai was - 95 yuan/ton, the basis in Tianjin was - 105 yuan/ton, the basis in Guangdong was - 85 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - Guangdong spread was - 10 yuan/ton. The zinc ingot futures inventory of the SHFE was 101,300 tons, the domestic Shanghai - area basis was - 95 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 20 yuan/ton. The LME zinc ingot inventory was 118,400 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancellation warrant was 6,200 tons. The basis of the overseas cash - 3S contract was - 48.17 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was 27.63 US dollars/ton. After excluding the exchange rate, the Shanghai - London price ratio of the disk was 1.059, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was - 2,773.65 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets on March 16 was 236,200 tons, an increase of 5,100 tons compared with March 12 [10]. Strategy Viewpoint - The visible inventory of zinc concentrate has increased slightly, the domestic TC of zinc concentrate has stopped falling and stabilized, and the imported TC has continued to decline. The zinc smelting profit remains at a relatively low level. Currently, the zinc industry maintains a weak situation. The domestic social inventory has accumulated to a relatively high level, which is higher than the same period in the past two years. The probability of the Iranian conflict becoming long - term has increased, the oil price is at a relatively high level, the market has inflation concerns, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has been lowered, which has put pressure on the trend of non - ferrous metals. The zinc prices in the Shanghai and London markets have broken through with increasing positions, and the zinc price has formed a downward trend. It is necessary to pay attention to the accumulation of zinc ingot social inventory and be vigilant against the risks caused by the escalation of geopolitical conflicts and unexpected macro - policies [11]. Tin Market Information - On March 18, the main contract of Shanghai tin closed at 370,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.36% compared with the previous day. The SHFE inventory was 11,673 tons, a decrease of 322 tons compared with the previous day. The LME inventory was 8,745 tons, an increase of 30 tons compared with the previous day. Currently, the overall supply side of tin shows the characteristics of "post - festival recovery but limited upward movement". After the Spring Festival and the Lantern Festival, as the resumption of work and production gradually progresses, the start - up rates of smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi have recovered from the holiday low, and the industry's production activities have entered a stage of mild recovery. Among them, the resumption of production in Yunnan is relatively faster, and the improvement in the start - up rate is more obvious; although there is also recovery in Jiangxi, the recovery amplitude is relatively limited, and the overall recovery slope is relatively gentle. On the demand side, the overall tin demand side is still in a weak recovery stage, and the market is characterized by "slow consumption recovery and strong wait - and - see sentiment". Affected by the Spring Festival holiday in February, downstream consumption has significantly shrunk. After entering March, the improvement in actual terminal procurement is still relatively limited, and there has been no substantial recovery. The core reason is that the recent high tin price and high volatility have suppressed the procurement enthusiasm of downstream enterprises, and most terminal customers maintain a cautious wait - and - see attitude, with weak restocking willingness [13]. Strategy Viewpoint - Although the tin supply side has improved marginally compared with before the festival, it still cannot get rid of the real constraint of tight raw materials. Under the background of simultaneous pressure on the mine end and the secondary end, the release rhythm of smelting - end production capacity is slow, and the short - term supply increase is expected to be limited. The tin supply still maintains a tight pattern. On the tin demand side, high - price suppression and wait - and - see sentiment are still the dominant factors, and short - term consumption is likely to maintain a weak recovery pattern. Under the background of weak supply and demand, the tin price is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 350,000 - 420,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the overseas LME tin is 45,000 - 53,000 US dollars/ton [14]. Nickel Market Information - On March 18, the main contract of Shanghai nickel closed at 135,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.54% compared with the previous day. In the spot market, the premiums and discounts of various brands remained stable. The average premium and discount of Russian nickel spot to the near - month contract was - 50 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day; the average premium of Jinchuan nickel spot was 6,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. On the cost side, the ex - factory price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore was 71.64 US dollars/wet ton, the same as the previous day, and the ex - factory price of 1.2% - grade Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore was 32.5 US dollars/wet ton, the same as the previous day. In terms of nickel iron, the price continued to rise. The average price of 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was 1,092.5 yuan/nickel point, a decrease of 1 yuan/nickel point compared with the previous day [16]. Strategy Viewpoint - Some HPAL factories in Indonesia are under maintenance, and the shortage of sulfur continues. The supply of MHP is expected to remain tight, and the nickel supply - demand situation has improved. However, there is a large risk of short - term geopolitical conflicts, and the nickel inventory level is relatively high. The price is expected to fluctuate. The reference range for the Shanghai nickel price this week is 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the LME 3M nickel contract is 16,000 - 20,000 US dollars/ton. It is recommended to operate within the range [17]. Lithium Carbonate Market Information - The evening quotation of the Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) was 153,822 yuan, a decrease of 1.21% compared with the previous working day. Among them, the quotation of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 150,800 - 157,600 yuan, and the average price decreased by 1,950 yuan (- 1.25%) compared with the previous working day. The quotation of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 147,500 - 155,500 yuan, and the average price decreased by 0.98% compared with the previous day. The closing price of the LC2605 contract was 150,120 yuan, a decrease of 3.35% compared with the previous day's closing price. The average premium and discount of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 1,100 yuan [19]. Strategy Viewpoint - On Wednesday, most domestic commodities closed down, and lithium carbonate had a large decline. The new - energy passenger - vehicle market remains weak. As of March 15, the cumulative domestic retail sales this year were 1.345 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 26%, similar to the decline at the end of February. There is currently a lack of bullish drivers in the fundamentals. The domestic lithium salt supply and demand are both strong, and the downstream wait - and - see sentiment is strong. There may be buying orders released when the callback amplitude