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Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current zinc market fundamentals present a pattern of "high inventory, weak demand, and loose mining supply." If the mining profit remains relatively high and smelting operations do not significantly contract, the high - inventory pattern is expected to continue, and zinc prices may enter a downward trend. Before the supply - demand pattern reverses fundamentally, the zinc market should mainly adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies [2][25] Group 3: Summary of Supply - side - Domestic zinc ingots are in a state of continuous surplus, with inventory pressure throughout the industry chain. On March 16, the social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets was 236,200 tons, the SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 98,700 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 118,400 tons. The LME zinc ingot inventory has decreased by over 150,000 tons from its peak, and this hidden inventory may lead to continuous inventory accumulation in the LME [5] - Domestic zinc smelting enterprises have strong operational resilience. Although the smelting profit is relatively low, high - priced by - products such as sulfuric acid offset some raw material costs, so the willingness of smelters to cut production is limited. Even if smelting operations decline compared to 2025, the high - inventory situation of zinc ingots in 2026 will not change [5] - Compared with historical cycles, in this round of zinc ingot surplus, zinc mining still has relatively high profits, and mining enterprises have a high output willingness. This changes the previous pattern where zinc mining supply contracted as prices fell, and the current mining supply is expected to be looser than in previous cycles. The relatively low smelting profit may also lead to a longer decline cycle for zinc prices [6] Group 4: Summary of Demand - side - The previous strong upward trend in the non - ferrous sector was related to the expectations of the US fiscal and monetary policies boosting the overseas real economy and the demand for non - ferrous metals in AI infrastructure construction. However, both expectations have weakened [21] - Zinc consumption is highly dependent on traditional fields, and the demand during the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season is questionable. The domestic real estate and infrastructure investment have no obvious increase, and the auto production and sales growth has slowed down. The export window at the spot end is closed, and the physical demand remains weak [21] - The prolonged Iran conflict has led to high energy costs, increased global inflation expectations, suppressed the interest - rate cut expectations of the Fed and the ECB, and pushed up the panic index. Some traders use short positions in non - ferrous metals to bet on the overseas economic recession [22] Group 5: Summary of Capital and Technical Aspects - Since February, the open interest of the LME Zinc 3M contract has decreased by 25,200 lots to 214,500 lots, and the total weighted open interest of SHFE zinc has decreased by 68,000 lots to 174,700 lots. Speculative funds outside the industry have left the market, and the trading focus of zinc prices in the Shanghai and London markets may return to the weak industrial reality [25] - The technical chart of SHFE zinc has entered a downward trend, breaking through the support level on March 16 with increased volume. The LME zinc broke through the upward trend of the past year on March 17, forming a multiple - top pattern and may enter a downward trend [25]