贵金属：贵金属日报2026-03-19-20260319

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sharp rise in oil prices under the backdrop of the US - Iran war has pushed up market inflation expectations and prompted the market to re - evaluate the US economy's ability to withstand energy shocks [4] - The FOMC meeting on March 18 decided to keep the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%–3.75%, with Director Milan voting against and advocating a 25 - basis - point rate cut [2][4] - The possibility of a rate hike in the next move has been mentioned in this meeting, and the dot - plot maintains the expectation of one rate cut each this year and next year, but the distribution is more hawkish than before, putting short - term pressure on precious metal prices [4] - Strategically, it is recommended to be cautiously bearish. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 1,000 - 1,160 yuan/gram, and for Shanghai Silver, it is 17,200 - 20,500 yuan/kilogram [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold fell 2.23% to 1,088.90 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver fell 1.88% to 19,170.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold fell 1.39% to 4,828.00 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver fell 2.63% to 75.56 US dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.26%, and the US dollar index was 100.25 [2] 3.2 Fed Meeting Information - The Fed's March FOMC meeting decided to keep the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%–3.75%, with Director Milan voting against and advocating a 25 - basis - point rate cut [2][4] - SEP economic forecasts show that the median expected real GDP growth rate in the US this year is 2.4%, and 2.3% next year, an increase from the December forecast. The year - end unemployment rate remains at 4.4% and will decline slightly later. The median interest rate expectation shows that the year - end interest rate is 3.4% this year and 3.1% next year, the same as in December [2] - The impact of the Middle East geopolitical events on the US economy is uncertain, and high oil prices in the short term will push up overall inflation [2] 3.3 US Government's Response to Oil Prices - US Vice - President Vance and several core officials of the Trump administration will hold a closed - door meeting with oil industry executives on Thursday. Vance revealed that the government will announce multiple countermeasures in the next 24 to 48 hours regarding the current oil price issue. The meeting will be held at the American Petroleum Institute, and the council members of this industry organization will attend [3] 3.4 Key Data of Gold and Silver | | 2026 - 03 - 18 | 2026 - 03 - 17 | Day - on - Day Change | Day - on - Day Percentage Change | One - Year Historical Quantile | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | COMEX Gold | | | | | | | Closing Price (Active Contract) | N/A | 5,011.30 USD/ounce | N/A | N/A | N/A | | Trading Volume | N/A | 11.54 million lots | N/A | N/A | N/A | | Open Interest (CFTC Latest Report Period: Weekly) | 41.40 million lots | 40.98 million lots | Increase | 1.02% | 9.43% | | Inventory | 1,000 tons | 1,003 tons | Decrease | - 0.30% | 0.79% | | LBMA Gold | | | | | | | Closing Price | 5,016.80 USD/ounce | 4,994.85 USD/ounce | Increase | 0.44% | 90.23% | | Closing Price (Active Contract) | 1,113.52 yuan/gram | 1,116.20 yuan/gram | Decrease | - 0.24% | 88.75% | | Trading Volume | 21.58 million lots | 23.80 million lots | Decrease | - 9.34% | 5.62% | | SHFE Gold | | | | | | | Open Interest | 31.17 million lots | 31.03 million lots | Increase | 0.43% | 9.23% | | Inventory | 106.85 tons | 105.32 tons | Increase | 1.45% | 99.59% | | Precipitated Funds | 55.529 billion yuan | 55.423 billion yuan | Inflow | 0.19% | 70.08% | | Closing Price (Short - pays - long) | 1,111.73 | 1,115.48 | Decrease | - 0.34% | 89.15% | | AuT + D | | | | | | | Trading Volume | 47.38 tons | 39.20 tons | Increase | 20.87% | 43.77% | | Open Interest | 224.12 tons | 229.93 tons | Decrease | - 2.53% | 64.65% | | COMEX Silver | | | | | | | Closing Price (Active Contract) | N/A | 79.46 USD/ounce | N/A | N/A | N/A | | Open Interest (CFTC Latest Report Period: Weekly) | 11.55 million lots | 11.33 million lots | Increase | 1.88% | 0.81% | | Inventory | 10,422 tons | 10,510 tons | Decrease | - 0.83% | 0.79% | | LBMA Silver | | | | | | | Closing Price | 80.22 USD/ounce | 78.95 USD/ounce | Increase | 1.61% | 84.76% | | Closing Price (Active Contract) | 19,980.00 yuan/kilogram | 20,308.00 yuan/kilogram | Decrease | - 1.62% | 83.93% | | Trading Volume | 88.73 million lots | 88.84 million lots | Decrease | - 0.13% | 23.29% | | SHFE Silver | | | | | | | Open Interest | 47.85 million lots | 47.40 million lots | Increase | 0.95% | 0.80% | | Inventory | 346.92 tons | 353.76 tons | Decrease | - 1.93% | 6.82% | | Precipitated Funds | 25.812 billion yuan | 25.988 billion yuan | Decrease | - 0.68% | 67.21% | | Closing Price (Short - pays - long) | 19,966.00 | 20,330.00 | Outflow | - 1.79% | 85.94% | | AgT + D | | | | | | | Trading Volume | 1,668.56 tons | 172.51 tons | Increase | 867.21% | 97.99% | | Open Interest | 2,900.004 tons | 2,887.258 tons | Increase | 0.44% | 4.01% | [6] 3.5 ETF Holdings of Gold and Silver - Gold: The closing price in US dollars was N/A (previous day: 459.27), the holding volume was N/A tons (previous day: 1,069.56), the precipitated funds were N/A billion US dollars (previous day: 172.482), and the trading volume was N/A million shares (previous day: 761.01). The holdings of iShare in the US, GBS in the UK, PHAU in the UK, and GOLD in the UK remained unchanged, while the holdings of SGBS in Switzerland decreased by 0.13% [64] - Silver: The closing price in US dollars was 68.70 (previous day: 71.66, down 4.13%), the holding volume was 15,389.75 tons (unchanged), the precipitated funds were 38.563 billion US dollars (previous day: 39.680 billion, down 2.81%), and the trading volume was 4,437.79 million shares (previous day: 3,299.18 million, up 34.51%). The holdings of ETPMAG in Australia, PSLV in Canada, and CEF in Canada remained unchanged [64]