策略点评报告：3月FOMC：联储上修通胀，市场定价不降息

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate target range at 3.50%-3.75%, marking the second consecutive pause on rate cuts, with a voting result of 11 to 1 [2][16] - The median PCE inflation forecast for 2026 was raised from 2.4% to 2.7%, while the GDP growth forecast for 2026 was adjusted from 2.3% to 2.4% [2][24] - The number of committee members expecting more than one rate cut in 2026 decreased from 8 to 5 since the last December meeting [2][16] Group 2 - The labor market shows some stability but acknowledges downward risks, with the balance point for new job creation significantly lowered [3][18] - The Fed views the current energy supply shock as a one-time event, and it is too early to determine if price increases will spread to overall inflation [3][17] - The market is pricing in no rate cuts for 2026, with expectations that if non-farm data shows unexpected declines, the Fed's stance may shift towards recession and rate cuts [20][26] Group 3 - Asset strategies indicate that the Fed's meeting has reduced future rate cut expectations, leading to anticipated upward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields due to inflation and liquidity factors [21] - Short-term volatility is expected, but the relative value of various assets is beginning to emerge, with a focus on opportunities in U.S. equities post liquidity tightening in April [21][9] - Gold, U.S. stocks, and Bitcoin may face challenges due to rising Treasury yields, while the long-term positioning for gold is advised to wait until the yield increase stabilizes [21][9]