观点与策略：国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20260319

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the content. Core Views - The report analyzes the market trends of various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc. The geopolitical conflicts and macro - economic factors such as Fed policies, inflation data, and supply - demand relationships are the main drivers affecting the market trends of these commodities [6][9][128]. - Different commodities show different trends. Some are expected to be strong, some are in a weak pattern, and some are in a wide - range shock state [2]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - Gold: Geopolitical conflicts broke out. The prices of domestic and international gold showed different trends. The prices of Comex gold and London gold increased, while the prices of domestic gold futures and spot decreased. The trend strength is 0 [6]. - Silver: It fell from the shock platform. The prices of domestic and international silver futures and spot increased. The trend strength is 0 [6]. - Platinum and Palladium: Platinum followed the retracement of gold and silver, and palladium was under continuous pressure. The trend strength of both is - 1 [25][28]. Base Metals - Copper: The sharp rise of the US dollar pressured the price. The prices of domestic and international copper futures decreased. The trend strength is - 1 [9]. - Zinc: It was in a range - bound shock. The prices of domestic and international zinc futures decreased. The trend strength is 0 [12]. - Lead: The decrease in domestic inventory limited the price decline. The prices of domestic and international lead futures increased slightly. The trend strength is 0 [15]. - Tin: The macro - sentiment was weak. The prices of domestic and international tin futures decreased significantly. The trend strength is - 1 [18]. - Aluminum: It was in a high - level shock. Alumina was running strongly, and cast aluminum alloy followed electrolytic aluminum. The trend strength of aluminum is 0, alumina is 1, and aluminum alloy is 0 [22]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: For nickel, the smelting inventory accumulation and macro - sentiment resonated, and the shortage of the ore end supported the lower limit. For stainless steel, the fundamentals and macro - factors pressured, while the actual cost provided support. The trend strength of both is 0 [30]. Energy - Crude Oil - related: The Middle East conflict led to a sharp rise in international oil prices. The prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil showed different trends, with the former mainly following the upward trend and the latter strengthening significantly at night. The trend strength of both is 1 [122]. - Natural Gas - related: The South Pars gas field was attacked, and LPG was running strongly at night. The cost - end geopolitical disturbances of propylene led to an expected reduction in supply. The trend strength of both is 1 [114]. - Coal - related: Coking coal and coke were in a wide - range shock, and thermal coal had a rising trend in the origin and stopped falling at the port. The trend strength of coking coal, coke, and thermal coal is 0 [57][60]. Chemicals - PX, PTA, and MEG: PX and PTA were in a unilateral shock - strengthening trend, and MEG was strengthening due to increased Middle - East geopolitical risks. The trend strength of PX is 1, PTA is 1, and MEG is 2 [66][72]. - Rubber and Synthetic Rubber: Rubber was in a weak shock, and synthetic rubber was running strongly. The trend strength of rubber is - 1, and synthetic rubber is 1 [75][81]. - LLDPE and PP: For LLDPE, the cracking supply contracted, and downstream was resistant to high prices. For PP, the supply of various raw materials was restricted, and exports continued to be favorable. The trend strength of both is 1 [82]. - Paper Pulp: It was in a weak shock. The trend strength is - 1 [87]. - Glass: The price of the original sheet was stable. The trend strength is 0 [94]. - Methanol: It was running strongly. The trend strength is 1 [97]. - Urea: It was in a wide - range shock, and the fundamentals supported the price. The trend strength is 0 [103]. - Styrene: It was in a strong shock. The trend strength is 1 [106]. - Soda Ash: The spot market changed little. The trend strength is 1 [109]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil and Soybean Oil: Palm oil had a short - term strong trend due to continuous geopolitical conflicts, and soybean oil had limited driving factors and needed to pay attention to the Sino - US consultation process. The trend strength of both is 0 [146]. - Soybean Meal and Soybean: Overnight, US soybeans rebounded slightly, and Dalian soybean meal might rebound and shock. The spot price of soybeans in the producing area was stable, and the disk might adjust and shock. The trend strength of both is 0 [151]. - Corn: It was in a shock state. The trend strength is 0 [155]. - Sugar: Raw sugar increased, and it was in a shock - strengthening trend. The trend strength is 1 [158]. - Cotton: Attention should be paid to external market risks. The trend strength is 0 [162]. - Eggs: It was in a weak shock. The trend strength is 0 [166]. - Hogs: There were high inventory, high stock, high premium, and high positions. The trend strength is - 2 [169]. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to macro - impacts. The trend strength is 0 [173]. Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Line): It was in a wide - range shock, and attention should be paid to geopolitical sentiment disturbances. The trend strength is 1 [124]. Fibers - Short - fiber and Bottle - chip: Due to the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, the cost drove them to be strong. The trend strength of both is 1 [134]. Paper - Offset Printing Paper: It was recommended to wait and see. The trend strength is 0 [137]. Aromatics - Pure Benzene: It was in a strong shock. The trend strength is 1 [141].