棉花期货日报-20260319

Report Overview - Report Title: Cotton Futures Daily Report - Report Date: March 17, 2026 - Report Cycle: Daily - Researcher: You Zhenqi [1] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The cotton futures market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term. There are both positive and negative factors affecting the market [6]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Futures Market - The cotton futures price showed a volatile downward trend. The opening price was 15,460 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 15,415 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 0.16% from the previous trading day. The price fluctuated between 15,405 - 15,600 yuan/ton, with a range of 195 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 421,364 lots, and the open interest was 710,158 lots, indicating high market activity. The closing price was lower than the opening and settlement prices, suggesting that the short - side forces were slightly dominant [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The domestic cotton spot price remained relatively high at 16,885.38 yuan/ton, indicating a relatively tight supply in the spot market. The spot price was significantly higher than the futures price, providing space for arbitrage trading. The international cotton price was 73.96 cents/pound, and there was a certain price difference with the domestic price after conversion at the current exchange rate [4]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - Textile demand is picking up as the traditional peak textile seasons "Golden March and Silver April" arrive, and textile enterprises' restocking demand after the Spring Festival has increased. - Export expectations have improved due to the adjustment of US tariff policies, which is beneficial to textile exports, and textile enterprises' orders have increased. - Geopolitical risks have intensified. The global geopolitical tension continues to ferment. Affected by the shipping disruption in the Hormuz Strait and production cuts by major oil - producing countries, international oil prices have fluctuated sharply, and energy price fluctuations may affect the textile industry chain through cost transmission. - There is a strong wait - and - see sentiment in the market because the state reserve cotton rotation policy is not yet clear [5]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Positive factors: The high spot price supports the futures price; there is a large futures discount and a need for basis repair; domestic consumption remains stable; the international price is relatively stable, and import costs provide support. - Negative factors: The recovery of terminal demand is slow, and textile enterprises are cautious in purchasing; imported cotton impacts the domestic market; industrial inventories are high, which suppresses purchasing demand; and global economic uncertainties have increased [6].