申万期货品种策略日报——股指-20260319

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged, geopolitical interference persisted, and the three major U.S. indices declined. On the previous trading day, stock indices rebounded after hitting bottom, with the communication sector leading the gains and the petroleum and petrochemical sector leading the losses. The market turnover reached 2.06 trillion yuan. Starting from March, annual and first - quarter reports of listed companies are gradually being disclosed. Industry leaders with strong performance certainty will attract capital, driving the market from "expectation - driven" to "profit - driven". The market will shift from "general rise" to "selecting alpha". Stocks without performance support, such as pure concept stocks and small - cap stocks, may remain weak. In the long run, the stock index trend will still return to the domestic fundamentals and policies. Recently, repeated geopolitical risks have affected market sentiment, showing signs of short - term weakness. It is recommended to wait and see first [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - IF Contracts: The previous two - day closing prices for IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next) were 4628.80, 4613.00, 4557.80, and 4476.20 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 4651.40, 4630.80, 4569.60, and 4486.20. There were changes in prices, with increases or decreases of 6.60, 4.60, - 3.80, and - 6.20 respectively, and the corresponding price change rates of the CSI 300 were 0.14, 0.10, - 0.08, and - 0.14. The trading volumes were 64108.00, 20127.00, 43797.00, and 13154.00, and the open interests were 57806.00, 33494.00, 125306.00, and 58819.00. The changes in open interests were - 21077.00, 11306.00, 4027.00, and 719.00 [1] - IH Contracts: Similar data were provided for IH contracts. The previous two - day closing prices were 2962.00, 2955.00, 2940.60, and 2905.20, and the previous day's closing prices were 2958.60, 2955.00, 2942.20, and 2905.40. The price changes were - 11.40, - 10.40, - 10.40, and - 10.40, and the price change rates of the SSE 50 were - 0.38, - 0.35, - 0.35, and - 0.36. The trading volumes were 25304.00, 6282.00, 18637.00, and 4295.00, and the open interests were 27842.00, 11618.00, 46354.00, and 18648.00. The changes in open interests were - 5570.00, 1373.00, 1894.00, and 152.00 [1] - IC Contracts: The previous two - day closing prices for IC contracts were 8000.00, 7950.00, 7809.80, and 7632.20, and the previous day's closing prices were 8086.00, 8031.00, 7884.40, and 7714.20. The price changes were 61.60, 54.80, 41.40, and 44.00, and the price change rates of the CSI 500 were 0.77, 0.69, 0.53, and 0.57. The trading volumes were 65267.00, 23591.00, 65006.00, and 16236.00, and the open interests were 56289.00, 39986.00, 135219.00, and 65398.00. The changes in open interests were - 12804.00, 9156.00, 6590.00, and - 277.00 [1] - IM Contracts: The previous two - day closing prices for IM contracts were 8014.00, 7951.00, 7770.80, and 7564.20, and the previous day's closing prices were 8080.40, 8021.20, 7844.60, and 7622.60. The price changes were 54.60, 64.00, 56.80, and 50.20, and the price change rates of the CSI 1000 were 0.68, 0.80, 0.73, and 0.66. The trading volumes were 103417.00, 33232.00, 92768.00, and 24556.00, and the open interests were 76840.00, 55576.00, 168828.00, and 88568.00. The changes in open interests were - 23798.00, 12194.00, 17320.00, and 2024.00 [1] - Inter - month Spreads: The current inter - month spreads (IF next month - IF current month, IH next month - IH current month, IC next month - IC current month, IM next month - IM current month) were - 20.60, - 3.60, - 55.00, and - 59.20 respectively, while the previous values were - 15.80, - 7.00, - 50.00, and - 63.00 [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - CSI 300 Index: The previous index point was 4658.33, with a trading volume of 234.69 billion lots and a total trading value of 5241.74 billion yuan. The previous two - day values were 4637.44, 263.02 billion lots, and 5785.02 billion yuan. The price change rate was 0.45 [1] - SSE 50 Index: The previous index point was 2961.43, with a trading volume of 54.41 billion lots and a total trading value of 1137.22 billion yuan. The previous two - day values were 2963.58, 62.60 billion lots, and 1323.84 billion yuan. The price change rate was - 0.07 [1] - CSI 500 Index: The previous index point was 8096.43, with a trading volume of 206.49 billion lots and a total trading value of 3912.43 billion yuan. The previous two - day values were 8016.03, 230.13 billion lots, and 4062.47 billion yuan. The price change rate was 1.00 [1] - CSI 1000 Index: The previous index point was 8096.59, with a trading volume of 270.89 billion lots and a total trading value of 4198.93 billion yuan. The previous two - day values were 8019.86, 299.72 billion lots, and 4527.54 billion yuan. The price change rate was 0.96 [1] - Industry Indexes: Different industries had different price change rates. For example, the energy, raw materials, industrial, optional consumption industries had price change rates of - 0.94%, - 0.60%, 0.13%, - 0.35% respectively. The main consumption, medical and health, real - estate and finance, information technology industries had price change rates of - 1.02%, 0.02%, - 0.27%, 1.64% respectively. The telecommunications and public utility industries had price change rates of 5.64% and - 0.63% respectively [1] 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - The basis values (such as IF current month - CSI 300, IF next month - CSI 300, etc.) for different contracts and corresponding spot indices were provided, along with their previous two - day values [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - Domestic Indexes: The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index had previous values of 4062.98, 14187.80, 8663.84, and 3346.37 respectively, and previous two - day values of 4049.91, 14039.73, 8613.80, and 3280.06. The price change rates were 0.32%, 1.05%, 0.58%, and 2.02% respectively [1] - Overseas Indexes: The Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index had previous values of 26025.42, 55239.40, 6624.70, and 23502.25 respectively, and previous two - day values of 25868.54, 53700.39, 6716.09, and 23730.92. The price change rates were 0.61%, 2.87%, - 1.36%, and - 0.96% respectively [1] 3.5 Macro Information - Middle East Tensions: Attacks on Iranian energy facilities by the US and Israel led to Iran's retaliatory threats and actions, disrupting energy supplies in the Middle East. The daily oil exports of eight Middle - Eastern countries dropped significantly, with a decrease of about 61% according to Kpler and 71% according to Vortexa compared to the February average [2] - Fed's Decision: The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75%, with a 11 - 1 vote. One member opposed and advocated for a 25 - basis - point rate cut. The economic outlook was uncertain, and the dot plot showed a more conservative rate - cut path in 2026 - 2027 [2] 3.6 Industry Information - Cloud Computing: After Amazon and Google raised prices, Alibaba Cloud and Baidu Smart Cloud announced price increases of up to 34% and about 30% respectively for some products, while JD Cloud announced no price increase for core products and price cuts for some [2] - Sino - Korean Cooperation: The fifth China - South Korea Industrial Cooperation Ministerial Dialogue was held in Beijing, covering topics such as semiconductors, lithium batteries, etc. [2] - Hydropower: Seven departments jointly issued a guidance to promote the green transformation of small - scale hydropower, aiming for intelligent, intensive, and standardized development by 2035 and strictly controlling new development [2] - Agriculture: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasized promoting the seed industry revitalization to achieve self - reliance on seed technology and self - control of seed sources [2]