——2026年3月美联储议息会议解读：降息预期进一步后移

Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the interest rate at a target range of 3.5%-3.75%, aligning with expectations, with a voting ratio of 11:1 against further rate cuts[2] - The dot plot indicates one rate cut in 2026 and another in 2027, consistent with previous forecasts[2] Economic Indicators - Unemployment rate remains stable, with job growth described as low; the unemployment rate has shown little change in recent months[10] - Inflation expectations have been raised, with the 2026 PCE and core PCE forecasted at 2.7%, up from previous estimates of 2.4% and 2.5% respectively[13] Economic Growth - The Fed has upgraded its GDP growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027 to 2.4% and 2.3%, respectively, reflecting increased confidence in productivity[3] - The U.S. economy is expected to stabilize, supported by resilient service consumption and improvements in private investment[3] Market Reactions - The probability of a rate cut before December has decreased to 54% from 69.5% following the Fed's announcements[4] - The dollar index strengthened, while major U.S. stock indices saw increased declines, and the 2-year Treasury yield rose to 3.72%[4] Risks - Potential risks include higher-than-expected inflation, tighter monetary policy from the Fed, and unexpected downturns in the U.S. economy[23]