铁矿石：近强远弱，5-9正套继续持有

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core View of the Report - The iron ore market shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness, and the 5 - 9 positive spread position should continue to be held [1] - Near - term factors such as the escalation of the US - Iran conflict, a significant increase in energy costs, and the possible restriction of BHP iron ore purchases drive the price rebound of near - term iron ore contracts, while the long - term impact is relatively small [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of futures decreased by 5.5 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.67%. The closing price of I2605 was 811.0 yuan/ton, with a yesterday's position of 455,521 hands and a position change of - 6,207 hands [1] - Spot Price: Among imported ores, the price of Carajás fines (65%) decreased by 2.0 yuan/ton to 951.0 yuan/ton, PB (61.5%) decreased by 4.0 yuan/ton to 794.0 yuan/ton, Jimbour (61%) decreased by 4.0 yuan/ton to 746.0 yuan/ton, and Super Special (56.5%) decreased by 5.0 yuan/ton to 670.0 yuan/ton. Among domestic ores, the prices of Hanxing (66%) and Laiwu (65%) remained unchanged at 964.0 yuan/ton and 882.0 yuan/ton respectively [1] - Basis and Spread: The basis of I2605 against Super Special increased by 0.1 yuan/ton to 64.0 yuan/ton, and against Jimbour increased by 1.2 yuan/ton to 54.4 yuan/ton. The spread of I2605 - I2609 increased by 1.0 yuan/ton to 32.0 yuan/ton, and I2609 - I2701 increased by 0.5 yuan/ton to 21.0 yuan/ton. The spread of Carajás fines - PB increased by 2.0 yuan/ton to 157.0 yuan/ton, PB - Jimbour remained unchanged at 48.0 yuan/ton, and PB - Super Special increased by 1.0 yuan/ton to 124.0 yuan/ton [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - The US - Iran conflict escalation and energy cost increase, along with potential restrictions on BHP iron ore purchases, drive the near - term iron ore contract price rebound, while the long - term impact is small [1] - In 2026, the government work report focuses on stabilizing expectations, adjusting the structure, preventing risks, and promoting reforms. The GDP growth target is adjusted from "around 5%" to "4.5% - 5.0%", and the scale of policy - based financial instruments is increased [1] - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel enterprises is 221.2 million tons, a decrease of 6.39 million tons compared with the previous period [2] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is 1, indicating a relatively neutral view on the market [2]