申万期货品种策略日报-天胶-20260319

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The natural rubber is in the seasonal low-yield stage. The early opening of the domestic Yunnan production area increases the expected pressure of new rubber supply, suppressing rubber prices. However, the domestic production area is still in the early stage of tapping with low output, and the specific output situation needs continuous observation. The Thai production area is still in the low-yield season, which generally lasts until May. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao, China, continues to accumulate, and the short-term supply-side elasticity weakens, with raw material rubber prices relatively firm. The start-up of all-steel tires on the demand side is stable, and the short-term trend of rubber prices faces pressure, expected to be weak [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Prices: RU主力 closed at 16400 yuan/ton the previous day, down 400 yuan or -2.38% from two days ago; NR主力 closed at 13105 yuan/ton, down 365 yuan or -2.71%; BR主力 closed at 15260 yuan/ton, down 270 yuan or -1.74% [2] - Spreads: RU - NR was 3295 yuan/ton the previous day, down 35 yuan from two days ago; RU - BR was 1140 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; NR - BR was -2155 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan [2] - Trading Volume: RU主力 had a trading volume of 298877, NR主力 70320, and BR主力 272822 [2] - Open Interest: RU主力 had an open interest of 127172, down 5883; NR主力 had an open interest of 61137, down 427; BR主力 had an open interest of 66374, down 42 [2] Spot Market - Domestic Spot: The prices of whole milk rubber in Shandong, Shanghai, and Kunming were 16150 yuan/ton, 16250 yuan/ton, and 16350 yuan/ton respectively, with declines of -2.42%, -2.40%, and -1.80%. The prices of smoked sheets in Shandong and Shanghai were 19600 yuan/ton, down -1.51%. The prices of mixed rubber in Qingdao and Yunnan were 15565 yuan/ton and 16250 yuan/ton, with declines of -0.42% and -1.81% [2] - Downstream in Thailand: The prices of Thai smoked sheets, Thai cup rubber, and Thai latex were 75.2 baht/kg, 60.04 baht/kg, and 73.5 baht/kg respectively, with changes of 1.21%, -0.18%, and 0.68% [2]