铜冠金源期货商品日报-20260319

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 3 - month FOMC maintained the interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75%, and the conflict between the US and Iran escalated, which had a significant impact on the global financial and commodity markets [2]. - A - shares showed a V - shaped rebound, but the risk preference was affected by the external environment, and the short - term market was likely to continue to fluctuate and differentiate among sectors. The bond market also showed a rebound but was restricted by the fundamentals and inflation expectations [3]. - Precious metals were under pressure due to the Fed's hawkish signals and high inflation data, and were expected to maintain a weak trend in the short term [4][5]. - Copper prices were under pressure due to the Fed's policy stance and high PPI data, and were expected to continue to adjust in the short term [6][7]. - Aluminum prices were affected by both positive and negative factors, with the tightening expectation suppressing the upside and the supply - side disturbance providing support, and were expected to remain strong [8][9]. - Alumina was affected by the policy uncertainty of Guinea's bauxite, but the subsequent supply pressure might limit its upside space, and it was expected to be strongly volatile [10]. - Cast aluminum was affected by the cost and supply - demand situation, and was expected to fluctuate within a limited range [11]. - Zinc prices were under pressure due to the Fed's hawkish signals and geopolitical tensions, and the short - term decline was rapid [12][13]. - Lead prices had limited upward momentum due to weak downstream purchases, but the low - level operation of the regenerated lead smelter provided support [14]. - Tin prices were under pressure due to weak macro and micro factors, and were expected to decline to find support [15]. - Nickel prices were affected by the Fed's policy and supply - demand fundamentals, and were expected to fluctuate in the short term [16][17]. - Lithium carbonate prices were under pressure due to the Fed's reduced interest - rate cut expectations, and were expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [18]. - Steel prices were affected by the Fed's policy and the recovery of terminal demand, and were expected to fluctuate [19]. - Iron ore prices were supported by the shipping cost increase and supply - demand situation, and were expected to remain high and volatile [20]. - Coking coal and coke prices were boosted by the rising oil prices, and were expected to continue to rebound in an oscillatory manner [21]. - Bean and rapeseed meal prices were affected by the supply of soybeans and the energy market, and were expected to adjust in an oscillatory manner [22]. - Palm oil prices were affected by the energy market and supply - demand situation, and were expected to adjust in an oscillatory manner [23][25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The 3 - month FOMC maintained the interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75% with a 11:1 vote, added the statement of "highly uncertain Middle - East situation", and the dot - plot still maintained one interest - rate cut in 2026 - 2027. The SEP slightly revised up the growth and inflation expectations for 2026. The conflict between the US and Iran escalated, affecting the global energy supply. The CME interest - rate futures postponed the next interest - rate cut to July 2027, the 10Y US Treasury yield rose to 4.28%, the US dollar index returned to 100, and the US stocks, gold, and copper fell, while the oil price rose by 5% [2]. - Domestic: A - shares had a V - shaped rebound on Wednesday, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4063 points. The trading volume shrank to 2.06 trillion yuan. The risk preference of A - shares was affected by the external environment, and the short - term market was likely to continue to fluctuate. The bond market rebounded, but was restricted by the fundamentals and inflation expectations [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - The international precious - metal futures prices fell sharply on Wednesday, with COMEX gold futures down 3.68% to $4823.90 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 5.63% to $75.42 per ounce. The Fed released hawkish signals, the market's interest - rate cut expectations cooled, and the US inflation data exceeded expectations, putting pressure on precious - metal prices. The Fed's March meeting maintained the interest rate, pointed out the uncertainty of the Middle - East impact, and raised the inflation expectation. The interest - rate futures market expected a 50% probability of an interest - rate cut this year. Precious - metal prices were expected to remain weak in the short term [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai copper broke through the support level, and LME copper fell to around $12300. The domestic electrolytic copper spot market had weak transactions. The macro factors included the Fed's policy stance and the high US PPI data in February, which indicated a possible rebound in underlying inflation and limited the Fed's interest - rate cut space. The industry news was that BHP planned to invest $5 billion in a new concentrator project for its Escondida copper mine in Chile. Copper prices were expected to continue to adjust in the short term [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 24800 yuan/ton, down 0.4%. The LME aluminum closed at $3419.5 per ton, up 1.63%. The electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory increased, and the aluminum rod inventory also increased. The Fed maintained the interest rate and raised the inflation expectation. The Middle - East geopolitical conflict continued to escalate, which had both positive and negative impacts on aluminum prices. Aluminum prices were expected to remain strong [8][9]. 3.5 Alumina - On Wednesday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 3048 yuan/ton, up 0.66%. The spot alumina price rose. The import of bauxite increased. The policy uncertainty of Guinea's bauxite drove the alumina market, but the subsequent supply pressure might limit its upside space. Alumina was expected to be strongly volatile [10]. 3.6 Cast Aluminum - On Wednesday, the main contract of cast - aluminum alloy futures closed at 23570 yuan/ton, down 0.86%. The scrap - aluminum price fluctuated, and the supply of scrap aluminum gradually recovered. The supply of cast aluminum increased slightly, and the consumption increased slightly when the price fell. Cast aluminum was expected to fluctuate within a limited range [11]. 3.7 Zinc - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc showed a weak trend, and LME zinc broke through the support level. The US PPI data exceeded expectations, the Fed maintained the interest rate, and the dot - plot showed a reduced expectation of interest - rate cuts. The geopolitical tension in the Middle - East increased the risk aversion sentiment. Zinc prices were under pressure and were expected to have fluctuations around 23000 [12][13]. 3.8 Lead - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai lead showed a narrow - range oscillation. The terminal consumption recovered limitedly, and the battery export was restricted by tariffs. The downstream battery enterprises reduced their purchases when the lead price rebounded. The regenerated lead smelter had large losses and low operating loads, which provided support. Lead prices were expected to operate in a low - level range [14]. 3.9 Tin - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai tin showed a weak trend. The US PPI data exceeded expectations, the Fed maintained the interest rate, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle - East was tense. The supply of tin ore improved, and the demand was affected by the correction of AI expectations and the under - expected photovoltaic orders. Tin prices were expected to decline to find support [15]. 3.10 Nickel - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai nickel oscillated and declined. The Fed's policy stance suppressed the market risk preference. The supply of nickel ore was restricted by the rainy season in the Philippines, and the cost was supported. The downstream steel mills were in the seasonal procurement period, but the demand was affected by the high - cost raw materials. Nickel prices were expected to fluctuate in the short term [16][17]. 3.11 Lithium Carbonate - On Wednesday, lithium carbonate prices fell significantly, and the spot market also weakened. The raw - material prices decreased. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand in the power - battery and energy - storage fields had different performances. Lithium carbonate prices were under pressure but had some support, and were expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [18]. 3.12 Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Wednesday, steel futures oscillated and adjusted. The Fed maintained the interest rate. The Middle - East situation affected the market sentiment. The terminal demand recovered, and the steel production increased after the Two Sessions. Steel prices were expected to fluctuate [19]. 3.13 Iron Ore - On Wednesday, iron - ore futures oscillated. The spot market had normal transactions. The shipping cost increased due to the Iran conflict, which supported the iron - ore price. The overseas shipment increased, the port inventory decreased slightly, and the demand from steel mills increased. Iron - ore prices were expected to remain high and volatile [20]. 3.14 Coking Coal and Coke - On Wednesday, coking - coal and coke futures rebounded in an oscillatory manner. The Middle - East geopolitical conflict pushed up the oil price, which drove the coal market. The coking - coal price rebounded, and the coke cost was supported. The supply of coking coal was relatively loose, and the demand for coke increased. Coking - coal and coke prices were expected to continue to rebound in an oscillatory manner [21]. 3.15 Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Wednesday, the bean - meal 05 contract fell 0.26%, and the rapeseed - meal 05 contract fell 1.09%. The Middle - East energy infrastructure was attacked, and the oil price rose, which boosted the soybean and related agricultural - product markets. The domestic short - term supply was expected to be tight, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm increased. Bean and rapeseed meal prices were expected to adjust in an oscillatory manner [22]. 3.16 Palm Oil - On Wednesday, palm - oil futures fell. The Middle - East situation affected the energy market, and the oil price rose. The B50 biodiesel policy in Indonesia might be restarted, and the US biodiesel policy was to be released. Palm - oil prices were expected to adjust in an oscillatory manner [23][25]. 3.17 Metal Main - Variety Trading Data The report provides the closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and other data of various metal futures on March 18, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, gold, silver, etc. [26] 3.18 Industry Data Perspective The report provides the price changes, inventory changes, and other data of copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, and other metals from March 17 to March 18 [27][30].