油脂油料：申万期货品种策略日报--20260319

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Protein Meal: Night trading of soybean meal oscillated and closed higher. Although the South American soybean harvest is in a high - yield pattern, recent institutions have lowered their forecasts for Brazilian soybean production. The US President's potential announcement of biofuel blending rules boosts US soybean crushing demand, but the medium - term domestic supply surplus still suppresses prices [4]. - Oils and Fats: Night trading of oils and fats oscillated strongly. Southeast Asian palm oil production areas are entering the production - increasing season, but geopolitical conflicts and potential export restrictions in Indonesia may support palm oil prices. US biodiesel policies will boost the demand for US soybean oil, and short - term price fluctuations of oils and fats are expected to be large [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Domestic Futures: For domestic futures, the previous day's closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 8540, 9692, and 9780 respectively, with price drops of - 104, - 262, and - 53 and percentage drops of - 1.20%, - 2.63%, and - 3.15%. The previous day's closing prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 3036, 2443, and 8844 respectively, with price changes of - 34, - 42, and 26 and percentage changes of - 1.11%, - 1.69%, and 0.29% [3]. - International Futures: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4548 ringgit/ton, 1164 cents/bushel, 65.50 cents/pound, and 322 dollars/ton respectively, with price changes of - 77.0, 7.3, - 0.4, and 9.4 and percentage changes of - 1.66%, 0.63%, - 0.59%, and 3.01% [3]. Spot Market - Domestic Spot: The current spot prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oils are 8830 and 8770 respectively, with percentage drops of - 0.34% and - 0.57%. The current spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oils are 9860, with a percentage drop of - 1.00%. The current spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oils are 10280 and 10100 respectively, with percentage drops of - 0.58% and - 0.59% [3]. - Spot Basis and Spread: The current spot basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 290, and that of Zhangjiagang 24° palm oil is 168. The current spot spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil is - 170, and the spread between Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil is 1470 [3]. Import and Profit - The current import profits of near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, near - month Brazilian soybeans, near - month US West soybeans, near - month Canadian crude rapeseed oil, and near - month Canadian rapeseeds are - 585, - 204, 87, - 80, 305, and 426 respectively [3]. Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts of soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts are 25,714, 823, 905, 36,952, 586, and 900 respectively [3]. Industry Information - The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced that a private exporter reported the export of 120,000 tons of soybean meal to an unknown destination for delivery in the 2026/2027 sales year. S&P expects the US soybean planting area in 2026 to be 85 million acres, higher than the January forecast and the 2025 planting area [4]. - As of March 15, the Brazilian soybean harvest rate was 59.2%, compared with 50.6% last week, 69.8% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 58.4%. Conab expects the 2025/2026 Brazilian soybean production to reach 178 million tons, a 3.7% increase year - on - year [4].