豆油：豆系驱动有限，关注中美磋商进程：棕榈油：地缘冲突持续，短期偏强基因仍在

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical conflict continues, and palm oil still has a short - term strong tendency. The driving force of the soybean system for soybean oil is limited, and attention should be paid to the Sino - US consultation process [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Prices: The closing price of palm oil futures (day session) was 9,692 yuan/ton with a decline of 2.63%, and the night - session closing price was 9,844 yuan/ton with an increase of 1.57%. The closing price of soybean oil futures (day session) was 8,540 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.20%, and the night - session closing price was 8,630 yuan/ton with an increase of 1.05%. The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (day session) was 9,780 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.54%, and the night - session closing price was 9,902 yuan/ton with an increase of 1.25%. The closing price of Malaysian palm oil futures (day session) was 4,532 ringgit/ton with a decline of 1.11%, and the night - session closing price was 4,592 ringgit/ton with an increase of 1.41%. The closing price of CBOT soybean oil futures was 65.50 cents/pound with a decline of 0.71% [1]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of palm oil futures was 581,411 lots, an increase of 14,670 lots, and the open interest was 332,859 lots, a decrease of 27,367 lots. The trading volume of soybean oil futures was 280,668 lots, a decrease of 29,528 lots, and the open interest was 584,784 lots, a decrease of 19,737 lots. The trading volume of rapeseed oil futures was 197,832 lots, a decrease of 6,077 lots, and the open interest was 229,484 lots, a decrease of 4,185 lots [1]. - Spot Prices: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,860 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,950 yuan/ton, with no change. The spot price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 10,120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton. The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,210 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 US dollars/ton [1]. - Basis: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 168 yuan/ton, the basis of soybean oil in Guangdong was 410 yuan/ton, and the basis of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 340 yuan/ton [1]. - Price Spreads: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 88 yuan/ton, compared with - 121 yuan/ton two trading days ago. The spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 1,152 yuan/ton, compared with - 1,310 yuan/ton two trading days ago. The 5 - 9 spread of palm oil was 84 yuan/ton, compared with 144 yuan/ton two trading days ago. The 5 - 9 spread of soybean oil was 88 yuan/ton, compared with 98 yuan/ton two trading days ago. The 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil was 141 yuan/ton, compared with 134 yuan/ton two trading days ago [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The Trump administration temporarily waived the century - old shipping mandate, the Jones Act, to reduce the transportation costs of oil, natural gas, and other commodities in the United States [2]. - S&P Global Energy reported that it expects US farmers to plant 95.2 million acres of corn and 85 million acres of soybeans in 2026. The corn planting area forecast was raised from 95 million acres in January to 95.2 million acres. In 2025, US farmers planted 98.8 million acres of corn. The expected soybean planting area in 2026 is higher than the 84.5 million acres forecast in January and the 81.2 million acres sown in 2025 [3][4]. - Due to a significant reduction in Argentina's crushing volume and a decline in US exports, the global soybean oil export volume in February dropped significantly to 569,000 tons, but Brazil's export volume increased [4]. - The crisis in the Middle East has caused fluctuations in the edible oil market. The retail prices of palm oil and soybean oil at the consumer level in Bangladesh are higher than the maximum retail prices set by the government [4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 0, and the trend intensity of soybean oil is 0 [5].