PVC：偏强震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the PVC industry is a bullish and volatile trend [3] Core Viewpoints - Due to the escalation of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, overseas refining and chemical enterprises have successively declared force majeure, with a widespread increase in production cuts. The domestic ethylene price has continuously soared, and there is a shortage of subsequent ethylene arrivals. As a result, domestic ethylene - based PVC has successively cut production. Although the domestic supply - demand contradiction is expected to improve and the price has risen, the spot trading volume of PVC has not increased significantly [2] - Overall, weak trading, high inventory, and the increase in the start - up of calcium carbide - based PVC to fill the gap of ethylene - based PVC have led to a short - term convergence of the market basis. However, the spillover of the Middle East situation, rising costs, and supply disturbances in domestic and overseas chlor - alkali plants will support the PVC market in the medium and long term. Attention should be paid to changes in the geopolitical situation [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - 05 contract futures price: 5735; East China spot price: 5680; Basis: - 55; 5 - 9 spread: - 11 [1] - There are no newly added maintenance enterprises, and the weekly average load of ethylene - based plants has decreased [1] Market Condition Analysis - The PVC trend strength is 0, with a range of [-2, 2] for the trend strength, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [2]