工业硅：弱势格局；多晶硅：现货价格回落

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market is in a weak pattern, while the spot price of polysilicon is falling [1][2]. - Since 2025, the organic silicon industry pattern has been gradually optimized, with a rigid contraction on the supply - side and a structural growth on the demand - side, and the industry's prosperity has been continuously improving [2]. - The trend strength of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is -1, indicating a neutral view on industrial silicon and a bearish view on polysilicon [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: Si2605's closing price is 8,375 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan from T - 1, 245 yuan from T - 5, and 125 yuan from T - 22. Its trading volume is 206,369 lots, and the open interest is 246,958 lots. PS2605's closing price is 40,105 yuan/ton, down 1,565 yuan from T - 1 and 2,485 yuan from T - 5 [2]. - Basis: The industrial silicon spot premium (against East China Si5530) is +825 yuan/ton, and the polysilicon spot premium (against N - type re - investment) is +3,895 yuan/ton [2]. - Prices: The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon is 8,600 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 is 9,900 yuan/ton, and polysilicon N - type re - investment material is 45,500 yuan/ton [2]. - Profits: The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) is - 2,756.5 yuan/ton, and that in Yunnan (new standard 553) is - 5,624 yuan/ton. The profit of polysilicon enterprises is 1.2 yuan/kg [2]. - Inventory: The industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse - receipt inventory) is 55.2 million tons, the enterprise inventory is 19.7 million tons, and the industry inventory is 74.9 million tons. The polysilicon manufacturer inventory is 35.7 million tons [2]. - Raw Material Costs: The price of Xinjiang silicon ore is 320 yuan/ton, Yunnan silicon ore is 230 yuan/ton, Xinjiang washed coking coal is 1,475 yuan/ton, and Ningxia washed coking coal is 1,200 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon (Photovoltaic): The price of silicon wafers (N - type - 210mm) is 1.33 yuan/piece, battery cells (TOPCon - 210mm) is 0.405 yuan/watt, and components (N - type - 210mm, centralized) is 0.747 yuan/watt [2]. - Organic Silicon: The price of DMC is 14,050 yuan/ton, and the profit of DMC enterprises is 1,340 yuan/ton [2]. - Aluminum Alloy: The price of ADC12 is 25,000 yuan/ton, and the profit of recycled aluminum enterprises is 490 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On March 13, Sanyou Chemical stated on the interactive platform that its annual production capacity of organic silicon monomers has gradually expanded to 400,000 tons/year, and its products are widely used in various fields [2].