国新国证期货早报-20260319

Report Summary 1. Overview of Market Performance on March 18, 2026 - A-shares: The three major A-share indices rose collectively. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.32% to close at 4062.98, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.05% to close at 14187.80, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.02% to close at 3346.37. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.06 trillion yuan, a decrease of 16.35 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - Index Futures: The CSI 300 index oscillated and consolidated, closing at 4658.33, a rise of 20.89 compared to the previous day [2]. 2. Commodity Futures Analysis 2.1 Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The weighted coke index adjusted and consolidated, closing at 1741.7, a decrease of 11.6 compared to the previous day. Coke enterprises' operating loads remained stable, coke inventories decreased, and the profit per ton of coke turned negative. Steel mills' production was restricted, and the demand side was affected. The spot price of quasi-primary metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port was 1470 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [2][4]. - Coking Coal: The weighted coking coal index fluctuated within a range, closing at 1188.2 yuan, a decrease of 12.5 compared to the previous day. Mongolian coal customs clearance remained at a high level, mines and coal washing plants increased their operations, and clean coal inventories accumulated. The downstream coke enterprises' operations remained stable, coking coal inventories increased, and iron water production declined. The spot price of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 clean coal was 1435 yuan/ton, equivalent to 1350 yuan/ton on the futures market [3][4]. 2.2 Zhengzhou Sugar - The US sugar rose on Tuesday due to the increase in crude oil prices, but the price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract on Wednesday did not follow. Constrained by factors such as negative import data and a decrease in spot prices, long - position holders closed their positions, causing the futures price to decline. Affected by technical factors, the contract oscillated and slightly rebounded at night. China's sugar imports in February were 240,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1410.8%. The cumulative imports from January to February were 520,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 563.1%. Brazil's expected sugarcane planting area in 2026 was 9.373731 million hectares, a decrease of 1.3% from the previous month's forecast and 2.0% from the previous year. The sugarcane output was estimated to be 700.380132 million tons, a decrease of 0.9% from the previous month's forecast and 0.4% from the previous year [4]. 2.3 Rubber - Shanghai rubber showed an oscillating downward trend on Wednesday, mainly due to high crude oil prices potentially restricting global economic growth and affecting demand, and the steady progress of the tapping season in Yunnan, which would increase the supply of domestic new rubber. Affected by technical factors, the rubber futures oscillated and slightly declined at night. In January 2026, Indonesia exported 102,000 tons of natural rubber, a year - on - year decrease of 29%. In the first two months of 2026, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports were 321,000 tons, a decrease of 0.9% compared to the same period in 2025 [4][5]. 2.4 Soybean Meal - International Market: On March 18, the CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1163.75 cents per bushel, a rise of 0.63%. The strengthening of crude oil prices supported soybean prices. As of March 12, the harvest progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 61%, lower than 70% in the same period last year. Brazil's soybean exports in March were expected to be 16.32 million tons, slightly lower than the previous forecast of 16.47 million tons [5]. - Domestic Market: On March 18, the main soybean meal M2605 contract closed at 3036 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.11%. International companies suspended some Brazilian soybean exports last week, and the slow harvest progress of Brazilian soybeans led to concerns about the tight supply of imported soybeans in China from March to April. The trading volume of soybean meal increased significantly, and inventories decreased significantly. Currently, the quarantine policy for Brazilian soybeans has been relaxed, and the daily transportation volume has returned to normal. It is expected that the arrival volume in China from April to May will still increase significantly [5]. 2.5 Live Pigs - On March 18, the main live pig contract LH2605 closed at 10475 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.06%. On the supply side, the planned slaughter volume of large - scale breeding enterprises in March increased significantly compared to the previous month. To complete the monthly slaughter task and relieve financial pressure, the overall sales enthusiasm was high, and the slaughter rhythm continued to accelerate. The market supply remained abundant. The inventory of breeding sows was still at a high level, the production capacity base was large, and with the improvement of breeding efficiency, the effective supply continued to be abundant. On the demand side, after the Spring Festival, pork consumption entered the off - season, the sales of downstream white - striped pork were weak, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises was low, and the demand side's ability to absorb was insufficient, providing limited support for pig prices [5]. 2.6 Palm Oil - On March 18, the decline of international oil prices during the day dragged down the overall correction of the oil and fat sector. The palm oil futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange oscillated and declined from a high level. The main contract P2605 closed with a doji candlestick. The highest price was 9992, the lowest price was 9666, and the closing price was 9692, a decrease of 2.63% compared to the previous trading day. Indonesia may increase the consumption of biodiesel made from palm oil if global oil supply becomes difficult to guarantee. The Indonesian president called on producers and dealers of coal, crude palm oil, and their derivatives to prioritize domestic demand before exporting and implemented stricter controls on commodity exports [5]. 2.7 Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai Copper 2604 contract closed at 98590 yuan/ton, with an opening price of 99120 yuan, a highest price of 99530 yuan, and a lowest price of 98040 yuan. The trading volume was 106,663 lots, and the open interest was 174,221 lots. The price rose during the day and then fell back, and was under pressure in the late trading, effectively breaking through the 100,000 - yuan mark. LME copper inventories increased by 18,775 tons to 330,375 tons, reaching a new high since August 2019. The copper warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1291 tons to 324,289 tons, indicating significant inventory pressure. The spot price of Shanghai No. 1 electrolytic copper was 98990 yuan/ton, with a premium of 400 yuan/ton over the futures main contract. The downstream's willingness to replenish inventory at low prices improved [5][6]. 2.8 Cotton - On Wednesday night, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 15235 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 2 lots compared to the previous trading day. As it entered the sales peak season, textile enterprises purchased as needed [6]. 2.9 Logs - The main log 2605 contract opened at 812, with a lowest price of 803, a highest price of 815, and a closing price of 806, with an increase of 355 lots in open interest. On March 18, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 770 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was also 770 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day [6]. 2.10 Iron Ore - On March 18, the main iron ore 2605 contract oscillated and closed down, with a decline of 0.12% and a closing price of 811 yuan. The iron ore shipments increased compared to the previous period, the arrival volume decreased again, the port inventories continued to accumulate, and the iron water production continued to decline. However, with the lifting of production restrictions on steel mills, there was a demand for replenishing inventory due to rigid needs, and the demand for iron water might recover. In the short term, the iron ore price was in an oscillating trend [6]. 2.11 Asphalt - On March 18, the main asphalt 2606 contract oscillated and closed up, with a rise of 0.11% and a closing price of 4400 yuan. Domestic refineries reduced production due to unstable raw material supply, and inventories were at a low level. However, downstream demand had not started yet. In the short term, the asphalt price might follow the trend of oil prices [6]. 2.12 Steel - On March 18, the rb2605 contract closed at 3140 yuan/ton, and the hc2605 contract closed at 3310 yuan/ton. The current downstream terminal construction situation was average, and the demand recovery was still slow. Although the futures price of steel rose the previous day, some merchants slightly raised their prices, but the trading volume was small, and most actual transactions were at low prices. At the same time, the international situation was volatile, with many uncertain factors. In the short term, steel prices might fluctuate within a narrow range [6]. 2.13 Alumina - On March 18, the ao2605 contract closed at 3048 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the production capacity shut down before the Spring Festival had not resumed, and some roasting production capacity was restricted last week. The commissioning time of new production capacity was undetermined, so the overall supply pressure was controllable. On the demand side, the slight increase in electrolytic aluminum production capacity drove the recovery of procurement demand. In the spot market, the spot price continued to stabilize and rise. The willingness of holders to sell at high prices increased, and the enthusiasm of downstream buyers to enter the market improved. The trading atmosphere in the morning was active. In the afternoon, the futures price continued to be strong, the holders' reluctance to sell increased, and the downstream still had a rhythm of chasing the rising price to replenish inventory. The market's spot buying interest boosted the alumina futures price, and the overall trading performance was quite remarkable [6]. 2.14 Shanghai Aluminum - On March 18, the al2605 contract closed at 24800 yuan/ton. At the macro level, the military action of the US and Israel against Iran entered the third week, and geopolitical risks significantly increased. Iran attacked the Port of Fujairah in the UAE three times within four days, causing the suspension of shipments at this key hub (accounting for about 1% of global demand). The substantial closure of the Strait of Hormuz forced the UAE to cut its crude oil production by more than half. Although the White House said that oil tankers had begun to sail sporadically and the conflict might last for several weeks, analysts warned that any attack on oil tankers would trigger a serious situation. In this context, the market generally expected that major central banks such as the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank would keep interest rates unchanged this week. However, given the soaring oil prices pushing up inflation, the Federal Reserve's statement might turn hawkish, suggesting that the window for interest rate cuts would be further postponed. Domestically, the fundamental situation was "increasing supply and weak demand." The capacity replacement project of electrolytic aluminum plants was put into operation, and the high smelting profit boosted the supply expectation. Social inventories continued to accumulate. Downstream only maintained rigid - demand procurement, the spot discount pattern continued, and buyers' bearish and wait - and - see sentiment was strong, resulting in light trading [6][7]. 3. Market Outlook and Suggestions - Soybean Meal: Focus on weather changes in South America, the progress of the situation in the Middle East, and the rhythm of soybean arrivals [5]. - Live Pigs: Pay attention to the progress of the reduction of breeding sows, the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises, and the recovery of terminal consumption [5]. - Shanghai Copper: Track the progress of inventory reduction and the recovery of downstream peak - season demand [6]. - Logs: Pay attention to spot prices, import data, shipping costs, inventory changes, and the support of macro - expected market sentiment for prices [6].