华宝期货晨报铝锭-20260319

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The price of finished steel is expected to move in a range with a downward shift in the center of gravity and a weak operation [1][2] - The aluminum price is expected to be under pressure in the short term, with a short - term range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Steel - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel producers will have a shutdown and maintenance period from mid - January, and the resumption time is expected to be from the 11th to the 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown [1] - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui Province: one mill started to shut down on January 5, and most of the others will shut down around mid - January, with an estimated daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - The price of finished steel continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low in the recent period. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, leading to a continuous downward shift in the price center of gravity. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak support for prices [2] - The finished steel is expected to move in a range [2] Aluminum - The inventory of the domestic alumina market continues to decline, but the decline rate narrows, and the overall inventory level is still high, with further prominent structural differentiation characteristics [2] - There is still an expectation of overseas electrolytic aluminum production cuts. Due to energy and logistics factors in Europe and the Middle East, some production capacities have entered the maintenance cycle, and the logic of global supply contraction remains intact [2] - The domestic electrolytic aluminum operation remains stable, with limited incremental supply and overall stability [2] - Last week, the weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 2.4 percentage points to 61.9% week - on - week, continuing the post - holiday recovery trend [2] - The aluminum cable sector is strong, with the operating rate increasing by 2 percentage points to 65%. The demand for UHV and overhead lines is strong, and the enterprise production schedule has covered March [2] - The operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises remains stable at 72.9%. There is a co - existence of traditional peak - season demand recovery and short - term support from battery foils, but the Middle East war situation affects the air - conditioner foil production plan [2] - On Monday, the inventory of aluminum ingots in the mainstream consumption areas increased by 18,500 tons week - on - week, showing a stockpiling trend in all three regions. The aluminum price is expected to be under pressure in the short term, with a short - term range - bound oscillation [1][3]