煤焦：煤产量回升至高位，盘面震荡运行

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The expectation of rising hot metal production is expected to boost the sentiment of the raw material market. However, due to the transmission of overseas geopolitical conflicts, the valuation of coking coal and coke has rebounded, and the price rebound is weak. Short - term risk control is needed to avoid chasing up [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - Yesterday, the coking coal and coke futures prices rose first and then fell, closing down at the end of the session, with a slight rebound at night. The overall fluctuation was still relatively intense. The 05 contract of coking coal should pay attention to the resistance level of 1,200 yuan/ton [2] Production Data - From January to February 2026, China's raw coal output was 760 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%; the cumulative coke output was 8.255 million tons, a year - on - year slight increase of 0.8%; the cumulative pig iron output was 13.77 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.7%; the cumulative crude steel output was 16.034 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6% [2] Supply Side - In terms of coking coal fundamentals, coal mine production has returned to a high level. This week, the daily output of raw coal and clean coal from 523 sample coking coal mines was 1.969 million tons and 798,000 tons respectively, an increase of 33,000 tons and 21,000 tons respectively compared with the previous week, and the production increase rate has slowed down. At the import end, the daily customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port of Mongolian coal remained at a relatively high level, with an average daily customs clearance volume of 187,000 tons last week, and the inventory in the port supervision area continued to increase. In the first two months, China's cumulative coal imports were 77.222 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.45% [2] Demand Side - Last week, the hot metal output dropped to 2.21 million tons. With the lifting of phased emission reduction restrictions, it is expected to rebound significantly this week, and the procurement of raw materials by coking and steel enterprises has improved [2]