碳酸锂：供需博弈叠加宏观情绪施压区间宽幅震荡，成材：重心下移偏弱运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand game and macro - sentiment pressure lead to a wide - range volatile trend in the lithium carbonate market [2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - The main contract of lithium carbonate dropped to 150,120 yuan/ton yesterday. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the spot market is 155,500 yuan/ton. Market inquiries and actual transactions improved compared to the previous day [2] 3.2 Supply - Last week, raw material prices were divided (spodumene prices generally increased, while lepidolite and hectorite prices decreased) and remained at a high level. The SMM operating rate rose to 53.41%, and the total output increased to 23,426 tons (+836 tons). Imports from Chile in March were sufficient, supplementing the domestic supply. Overall supply is steadily increasing, strengthening the medium - term expectation of a loose supply [3] 3.3 Demand - The production schedule expectation in March is optimistic, but downstream acceptance of high prices is low. Last week, ternary lithium - iron phosphate production and inventory increased, and the production and sales of energy - storage cells were booming with low inventory, which was a structural highlight. However, downstream enterprises mainly replenished inventory at low prices, creating a stalemate with upstream price - holding [3] 3.4 Inventory - Last week, the SMM four - location social inventory decreased to 42,500 tons (-490 tons), and the sample weekly inventory decreased to 99,000 tons, at a relatively low level. The total inventory days decreased to 27.8 days, maintaining a tight - balance pattern. Smelters continued to reduce inventory, and downstream inventory increased to 45,600 tons [3] 3.5 Macro Policy - Internationally, the 15% temporary tariff policy of the US White House is still within the window period, which is a phased positive for demand. The tense situation between the US and Iran continues, and geopolitical risk premiums still exist, disturbing market sentiment. The weakening of the global interest - rate cut expectation puts pressure on the non - ferrous sector. Domestically, subsidies for car trade - ins and battery export tax rebates (officially implemented on April 1st, currently in the last window period) stimulate terminal consumption. The management method for the comprehensive utilization of new - energy vehicle power batteries optimizes the domestic supply structure in the long term and raises the cost - support center. Developments such as Qinghai Salt Lake development, the "14th Five - Year Plan" for energy storage, and the Central Economic Work Conference support long - term supply - demand balance. The 2026 government work report mentions zero - carbon parks/factories, which are expected to become the second growth curve for energy storage [4]