宁证期货今日早评-20260319

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - In the short - term, gold and silver are expected to remain in high - level oscillations. Gold is affected by rising inflation expectations and suppressed interest - rate cut expectations due to the deepening Middle - East conflict [1][7]. - Methanol is expected to be in a short - term oscillation with a slightly upward trend, as domestic methanol production is at a high level, downstream demand is recovering, and inventories are decreasing [2]. - Iron ore is expected to oscillate in the short - term and show a weakening trend in the medium - term due to supply and geopolitical disturbances and high inventory pressure [4]. - For coking coal, if the geopolitical conflict persists, it may follow the strong performance of crude oil prices; if the conflict eases, it is expected to maintain an oscillating operation [4]. - The price of hot - rolled coils may face pressure after a rebound, as geopolitical conflicts and trade investigations bring uncertainties to steel exports, and the inventory is relatively high [5]. - Thirty - year treasury bonds are in a triangular oscillating convergence, and short - term bond prices are under pressure due to the economic recovery and the potential rebound of the stock market [6]. - The short - term price of live pigs is weak, but the downward space for long - term futures prices is limited. Attention should be paid to the slaughter volume of the breeding end and the reduction of breeding sows [9]. - Palm oil is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term, with strong support at the bottom. It is recommended to go long in the short - term [10]. - For soybean meal, the short - term price is expected to oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to go long on dips [11]. - The short - term volatility of aluminum may increase, and casting aluminum alloy is expected to follow the change of aluminum prices, as geopolitical conflicts and high energy prices affect the supply and demand [12]. - Tin prices are expected to be under pressure in the short - term due to the expected supply increase and high inventory [13]. - Plastic is expected to oscillate slightly upward in the short - term, with strong cost support and cautious demand - side procurement [14]. - Soda ash is expected to oscillate slightly downward in the short - term, as the supply is high, the demand is average, and the inventory is at a high level [15]. - Crude oil is recommended to maintain a long - bias trading strategy in the medium - term before the significant resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz [16]. - Polyester bottle chips are recommended to maintain a long - bias trading strategy, as the supply increases, the cost support exists, and the downstream enters the consumption peak season [17]. - Natural rubber is expected to oscillate, with a strong supply - side raw material price, a seasonal inventory increase, and a good export market in the tire industry [18]. Group 3: Summary by Commodity Gold - Middle - East energy facilities are attacked, the war deepens, inflation expectations rise, suppressing interest - rate cut expectations and precious metals. Gold is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium - term [1]. Methanol - The market price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2925 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton. Port and inland inventories are decreasing, and downstream demand is recovering. It is expected to oscillate slightly upward in the short - term [2]. Iron Ore - From March 9th to 15th, the arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China decreased by 380.5 tons week - on - week. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term and weaken in the medium - term [4]. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 72.39%, up 0.1%. The impact of geopolitical conflicts on coking coal prices is significant [4]. Hot - Rolled Coils - As of the week of March 18th, the output increased by 3.84 tons week - on - week, and the total inventory increased by 1.56 tons. The price may face pressure after a rebound [5]. Thirty - Year Treasury Bonds - Fixed - asset investment has changed from a decline to an increase. The bond market is under pressure in the short - term but is unlikely to break through the key support level [6]. Silver - The Fed maintains the federal funds rate unchanged, raises inflation and economic growth expectations. Silver is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium - term [7]. Live Pigs - The average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.1% compared with the previous day. The short - term price is weak, and the long - term downward space is limited [9]. Palm Oil - Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased by 25.23% in December. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term, with strong support at the bottom [10]. Soybean Meal - The spot market price is stable with a slight decline. The short - term price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is recommended to go long on dips [11]. Aluminum - The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz affects the aluminum supply chain. The short - term volatility may increase [12]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The price is partially up 100 yuan/ton. It is in a situation of cost support and weak demand, and is expected to follow the change of aluminum prices [12]. Tin - Samsung's strike threat adds uncertainty to the semiconductor supply chain. Tin prices are expected to be under pressure in the short - term [13]. Plastic - The mainstream price of LLDPE in North China is 8424 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. It is expected to oscillate slightly upward in the short - term [14]. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash is 1253 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton. It is expected to oscillate slightly downward in the short - term [15]. Crude Oil - U.S. crude oil inventory increased, and the Middle - East conflict deepens. It is recommended to maintain a long - bias trading strategy in the medium - term [16]. Polyester Bottle Chips - The capacity utilization rate is 72.50%, and the profit is 842.38 yuan/ton. It is recommended to maintain a long - bias trading strategy [17]. Natural Rubber - The raw material price in Thailand is firm, the inventory in China is seasonally increasing, and the tire export market is good. It is expected to oscillate [18].