LPG：南帕尔斯气田遭袭，夜盘强势运行，丙烯：成本端地缘扰动，供应存减量预期

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core View - The LPG market is strongly operating at night due to the attack on the South Pars gas field, and the propylene market has a supply reduction expectation due to geopolitical disturbances on the cost side [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: For LPG (PG), on March 18, 2026, the 2604 contract had a closing price of 5,766 with a -1.42% daily change and a night - closing price of 6,268 with an 8.71% night - change; the 2605 contract had a closing price of 5,670 with a -1.15% daily change and a night - closing price of 6,195 with a 9.26% night - change; the 2606 contract had a closing price of 5,525 with a -1.13% daily change and a night - closing price of 6,038 with a 9.29% night - change. For propylene (PL), the 2604 contract had a closing price of 8,220 with a 0.00% daily change and a night - closing price of 8,538 with a 3.87% night - change; the 2605 contract had a closing price of 8,313 with a -1.15% daily change and a night - closing price of 8,811 with a 5.99% night - change; the 2606 contract had a closing price of 8,084 with a -1.61% daily change and a night - closing price of 8,638 with a 6.85% night - change [1] - Spot Market: For LPG, the Shandong civil price was 5,630 with a -136 change from the previous day and a 183 main - contract basis; the East China import price was 6,623 with a 957 main - contract basis. For propylene, the Shandong price was 8,045 with a 20 change from the previous day and a -268 main - contract basis; the East China price was 8,300 with a 60 change from the previous day and a -13 main - contract basis [1] - Industrial Chain开工: As of March 13, 2026, the PDH开工 rate was 63.23%, a -1.7 change from the previous week; the alkylation开工 rate was 38.6%, a 1.4 change from the previous week; the MTBE开工 rate was 68.94%, a 1.22 change from the previous week [1] - LPG Shipment Volume: On March 18, 2026, the global LPG shipment volume from the US was 22.1 (a 17.1 change from March 17), and from the Middle East was 0.0 (no change from March 17). The Asian shipment volume from the US was 12.9 (a 7.9 change from March 17), and from the Middle East was 0.0 (no change from March 17) [1] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 1, and the trend intensity of propylene is 1, indicating a neutral - to - slightly - strong outlook as the range is [-2, 2] [9] 3. Market Information - On March 18, 2026 (Singapore closing time), the April CP paper - goods price for propane was 589 US dollars/ton, a 2 - dollar increase from the previous trading day; for butane, it was 583 US dollars/ton, a 2 - dollar increase from the previous trading day. The May CP paper - goods price for propane was 595 US dollars/ton, a 1 - dollar increase from the previous trading day [12] - There are multiple domestic PDH device maintenance plans and domestic LPG factory device maintenance plans as detailed in the report [13]