首席点评：美联储按兵不动，原油价格坚挺

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a possibility judgment on various varieties, with a "cautiously bullish" outlook for stock indices (IH, IF, IC, IM), crude oil, methanol, rubber, coking coal, coke, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, gold, silver, aluminum, lithium carbonate, cotton, and corn, and a "cautiously bearish" outlook for螺纹, hot-rolled coils, iron ore, and apples [5]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, raised inflation expectations, and still expects one interest rate cut this year. The situation in the Middle East is tense, which has an impact on the prices of various assets. The prices of U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, gold, and digital currencies have fallen, while the prices of oil and gas and the U.S. dollar have risen [1]. - For precious metals, in the short term, the Fed's hawkish signal and rising inflation pressure suppress prices, but in the long term, factors such as geopolitical risks, anti - inflation needs, de - dollarization, and central bank gold purchases support the upward trend [2][18]. - For stock indices, in the short term, geopolitical risks affect market sentiment, and there are signs of weakness. In the long term, the trend will return to the domestic fundamentals and policies. The market will shift from "expectation - driven" to "profit - driven" [3][12]. - For other varieties, the report analyzes the supply and demand, market environment, and price trends of each variety, such as the impact of supply and demand on the prices of rubber, polyolefins, glass, and soda ash, and the impact of production and policy on the prices of agricultural products [15][16][24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.当日主要新闻关注 3.1.1 International News - Iran launched the "True Promise - 4" 63rd round of operations, attacking U.S. - related oil and energy facilities in the region as a retaliatory measure for the earlier attack on its energy infrastructure [6]. 3.1.2 Domestic News - The China Securities Regulatory Commission held a meeting on comprehensively strengthening Party discipline and anti - corruption work in 2026, emphasizing the need to deepen the special governance of corruption in key areas and crack down on those who disrupt the capital market order and harm the interests of small and medium - sized investors [7]. 3.1.3 Industry News - NVIDIA announced a cooperation with Qnity Electronics to jointly develop advanced materials for semiconductors and advanced packaging technologies for artificial intelligence and high - performance computing [9]. 3.2.外盘每日收益情况 - The report shows the daily income of various external market varieties on March 17 and 18, 2026, including the S&P 500, FTSE China A50 futures, ICE Brent crude oil, London gold, London silver, LME aluminum, LME copper, LME zinc, LME nickel, ICE No. 11 sugar, ICE No. 2 cotton, CBOT soybeans, CBOT soybean meal, CBOT soybean oil, CBOT wheat, and CBOT corn, along with their price changes and percentage changes [10]. 3.3.主要品种早盘评论 3.3.1 Financial - Stock Indices: Affected by the Fed's interest rate decision and geopolitical factors, the U.S. stock market declined. The stock index rebounded after hitting the bottom. The communication sector led the rise, and the petrochemical sector led the decline. The market turnover was 2.06 trillion yuan. The performance - driven market will gradually replace the expectation - driven market, and stocks without performance support may be weak. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see [12][13]. - Treasury Bonds: Treasury bonds continued to rise. The central bank's open - market reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 6 billion yuan. The Fed's stance and the tense situation in the Middle East increased inflation expectations. Although the short - term Treasury bond futures prices are supported, the long - term Treasury bond futures prices will be under pressure [14]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemical - Rubber: The natural rubber is in the low - production season. Although the supply pressure is expected to increase due to the early opening of the domestic Yunnan production area, the current output is still small. The demand for all - steel tires is stable, and the rubber price is expected to be weak in the short term [15]. - Polyolefins: Polyolefins fluctuated widely on Wednesday and rose sharply at night. The situation in the Middle East has an impact on oil prices and the chemical market. The future trend depends on the actual start - up of devices and the support of demand [16]. - Glass and Soda Ash: The glass and soda ash futures prices declined. The inventory of glass production enterprises decreased last week, and the inventory of soda ash production enterprises also decreased. In the future, the digestion of glass inventory and the supply - demand pattern of soda ash need to be concerned [17]. 3.3.3 Metals - Precious Metals: Precious metals fluctuated downward in the short term due to the Fed's hawkish signal and rising inflation pressure. In the long term, the price center will continue to rise due to multiple factors [18][19]. - Copper: The copper price decreased at night. The supply of concentrates is tight, and the smelting profit is at the break - even point. The copper price may fluctuate in the short term, and factors such as the U.S. dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand need to be concerned [20]. - Zinc: The zinc price decreased at night. The supply of zinc concentrates is temporarily tight, and the smelting output continues to increase. The zinc price may follow the overall trend of non - ferrous metals, and factors such as the U.S. dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand need to be concerned [21]. - Aluminum: The Shanghai aluminum price remained flat at night. Due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, some aluminum plants are looking for alternative import and export routes, and two aluminum plants have announced production cuts. The aluminum price has support at the bottom [22]. 3.3.4 Black - Coking Coal and Coke: The main contracts of coking coal and coke fluctuated at night. The supply pressure of coking coal is increasing, but with the end of environmental protection restrictions and the resumption of production, the iron water output is expected to increase, and the market should not be overly pessimistic [23]. 3.3.5 Agricultural Products - Protein Meal: The soybean meal price fluctuated and rose at night. Although the South American soybean harvest is in progress, some institutions have lowered their production forecasts for Brazilian soybeans. The U.S. biofuel policy may boost soybean demand, but the domestic supply is still abundant in the medium term, which suppresses the price [24]. - Oils and Fats: The price of oils and fats fluctuated strongly at night. The palm oil production in Southeast Asia will increase, but the geopolitical conflict may limit palm oil exports, and the U.S. biofuel policy will boost soybean oil demand. The price will fluctuate greatly in the short term [26]. - Pigs: The pig market is in a weak consolidation pattern. The supply exceeds the demand, and the terminal demand is weak, so the pig price lacks upward support and is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term [27]. - Sugar: The Zhengzhou sugar price rose overnight. The situation in Iran may affect the ethanol - to - sugar price ratio, and the sugar production ratio in the 26/27 season may decline. The domestic sugar price is boosted by the external market, and the impact of the macro environment needs to be concerned [28]. - Cotton: The Zhengzhou cotton price fluctuated overnight. The issuance of additional cotton import quotas may put short - term pressure on the cotton price, but in the long term, the supply is expected to be tight, and the overall trend remains unchanged [29]. 3.3.6 Shipping Index - Container Shipping to Europe: The EC index decreased by 1.71%. The shipping price of the European line has gradually returned to the supply - demand pricing, and the sentiment is still affected by geopolitical changes. The actual cargo volume is expected to increase in April, and the price increase by shipping companies needs to be concerned [30].