菜粕期货日报-20260319

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint - Short - term rapeseed meal fundamentals still have a downward driving force. With the weakness of overseas oilseeds and the domestic demand not yet starting, the futures price is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - On March 17, the closing price of the main rapeseed meal contract (RM.CZC) on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 2,485 yuan/ton, a 1.23% decline from the previous trading day. The opening price was 2,462 yuan/ton, the highest price was 2,495 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 2,431 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 769,979 lots, and the open interest was 621,061 lots [2] 2. Spot Market - On March 17, the national average spot price of rapeseed meal was 2,715.79 yuan/ton, and the basis for the main contract was 233.79 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level in the past year. This reflects that the current futures price is significantly at a discount to the spot price, indicating that the market's expectation of loose long - term supply has been fully reflected in the futures pricing [5][6] 3. Influencing Factors - External Market Linkage: On March 16, CBOT soybean futures fell 5.66%, and the May contract of ICE Canadian canola futures fell 37.3 Canadian dollars/ton to 702.6 Canadian dollars/ton, dragging down the domestic protein meal sector [7] - Supply - Demand: The trade relationship between China and Canada has eased, and the expected arrival volume of rapeseed in the future will increase, raising the long - term supply pressure. Currently, it is not the peak season for aquaculture, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is insufficient [7] - Related Varieties: Today, the main domestic soybean meal contract (M.DCE) fell 0.42%, and the main rapeseed oil contract (OI.CZC) fell 0.73%. The overall oil and oilseed sector is running weakly [7] 4. Market Outlook - Short - term rapeseed meal fundamentals still have a downward driving force. With the weakness of overseas oilseeds and the domestic demand not yet starting, the futures price is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [8]