中东资本市场：规模堪比香港

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the diversified financial sector [2] Core Insights - The Middle Eastern capital markets have a total market size comparable to Hong Kong, with a combined market value of approximately $4.9 trillion in 2025, while Hong Kong's market value reached $5.6 trillion [11][47] - The market structure in the Middle East is fragmented, with each country typically having its own independent stock exchange, leading to a lack of a unified capital market center [7][20] - Saudi Arabia dominates the market with an average market capitalization of about $2.51 trillion in 2025, significantly higher than other markets in the region [8][26] - The trading activity in the Middle East is characterized by low liquidity, with a total trading volume of approximately $1.9 trillion in 2025, compared to Hong Kong's $7.9 trillion [9][50] Market Structure - The market capitalization distribution shows a clear tiered structure, with Saudi Arabia in the first tier, followed by the UAE's Abu Dhabi and Dubai exchanges in the second tier, and Turkey's Istanbul exchange and Israel's TASE in the third tier [8][26] - The Saudi market is heavily influenced by the state-owned oil giant Saudi Aramco, which accounts for over 60% of the total market capitalization [34] Trading Characteristics - The overall liquidity in the Middle Eastern markets is low, with significant internal differences; for instance, Istanbul's exchange has a turnover rate of 276%, while Saudi Arabia's is only 13.9% [9][51] - The investor structure in Saudi Arabia is predominantly institutional, with over 95% of shares held by institutional investors, leading to lower trading activity [51] Geopolitical Context - The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have increased uncertainty in the capital markets, prompting some funds to reduce risk exposure and shift towards more liquid markets like the US or Hong Kong [12][13] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has included exchanges from Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and Saudi Arabia in its list of recognized overseas exchanges, which may enhance cross-border listing opportunities for Middle Eastern companies [16] Valuation Insights - Hong Kong's stock market is currently seen as relatively undervalued, with a PE ratio of 15.6x as of February 2026, making it attractive for Middle Eastern funds seeking to invest in Asia [17]