观点与策略：国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源-20260319

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. Core Views - Nickel: The combination of smelting inventory accumulation and macro - sentiment, with the shortage at the ore end providing support at the bottom [2][4]. - Stainless steel: Pressured by fundamentals and the macro - environment, but supported by the current cost [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: Attention should be paid to the impact of macro - commodity fluctuations [2][12]. - Industrial silicon: In a weak pattern [2][17]. - Polysilicon: Spot prices are falling [2][18]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 135,200, down 740 from the previous day; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 14,020, down 75. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 260,586, a decrease of 82,221; the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract was 126,426, a decrease of 17,805 [4]. - Macro and Industry News: The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore commodities in early 2026. The Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine business in Guatemala. The approved nickel ore production quota in 2026 is between 2.6 billion and 2.7 billion tons. Some nickel - mining companies in Indonesia were sanctioned [4][5][9]. - Trend Intensity: Nickel trend intensity is 0; stainless - steel trend intensity is 0 [11]. Lithium Carbonate - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the 2605 contract was 150,120, down 5,200 from the previous day. The trading volume was 205,889, an increase of 32,450. The spot - 2605 basis was 5,380 [14]. - Macro and Industry News: The Ningde Times' Jinchui Phase I project in Ningde City, Fujian Province, is planned to be completed and delivered by the end of April 2026. Nandu Power signed an 117MWh energy - storage project in the Northern Territory of Australia [15][16]. - Trend Intensity: Lithium carbonate trend intensity is - 1 [16]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Si2605 contract was 8,375, down 185 from the previous day; the closing price of the PS2605 contract was 40,105, down 1,565. The industrial - silicon social inventory was 55.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons compared to a week ago [18]. - Macro and Industry News: Sanyou Chemical's annual production capacity of silicone monomers has reached 400,000 tons/year, and the silicone industry's supply - side has a rigid contraction and demand - side has a structural growth [18]. - Trend Intensity: Industrial silicon trend intensity is 0; polysilicon trend intensity is - 1 [20].