2026年3月FOMC例会点评与展望：相机抉择

Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate (FFR) target range at 3.50%-3.75% during the March meeting[2] - The tone of the statement was hawkish, with upward revisions to inflation and economic forecasts, and a contraction in rate cut expectations reflected in the dot plot[1] - Board member Milan voted against the decision, favoring a 25 basis point rate cut[1] Economic Forecasts - The Fed revised its GDP growth forecasts for 2026, 2027, and 2028 upwards by 0.1, 0.3, and 0.2 percentage points to 2.4%, 2.3%, and 2.1% respectively[2] - The unemployment rate forecast for 2027 was adjusted up by 0.1 percentage points to 4.3%[2] - Core PCE inflation forecasts for 2026 and 2027 were raised by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points to 2.7% and 2.2% respectively[2] Rate Cut Expectations - The dot plot indicates a median expectation of one rate cut this year, with a split of 12 in favor and 7 against among participants[2] - The number of participants expecting no rate cut, one rate cut, and more than two rate cuts this year is 7, 7, and 5 respectively, compared to 4, 4, and 8 in December[2] Forward Guidance - Chairman Powell emphasized a wait-and-see approach, stating that progress on inflation is a prerequisite for any rate cuts[3] - Powell noted that the impact of energy price shocks would depend on inflation expectations and the timing of tariff-related inflation declines[3] Oil Price Impact - Under the assumption of rising oil prices for 1-2 months, the Fed may only cut rates once this year, as the economic impact of high oil prices is expected to be limited[4] - The U.S. is a net oil exporter, which reduces the economic shock from high oil prices[4]