2026年03月19日申万期货品种策略日报-铂、钯-20260319

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on platinum and palladium [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The long - term core logic for platinum and palladium remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations are intensified due to technical corrections and Fed personnel changes. Despite significant retracements from previous highs, the long - term bullish view is still valid, though investors need to be wary of risks related to the nomination process and external market corrections [4] 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Platinum Futures: For contracts pt2606, pt2608, and pt2610, the current prices are 548.00, 548.10, and 545.45 respectively, with price drops of - 6.55, - 6.45, and - 5.35, and percentage drops of - 1.18%, - 1.16%, and - 0.97%. The trading volumes are 4480, 94, and 32, and the open interests are all 13013 [1] - Palladium Futures: For contracts pd2606, pd2608, and pd2610, the current prices are 402.80, 399.50, and 397.85 respectively, with price drops of - 7.10, - 9.80, and - 7.85, and percentage drops of - 1.73%, - 2.39%, and - 1.93%. The trading volumes are 2158, 116, and 52, and the open interests are all 4388 [1] 3.2 Spot Market - Platinum Spot: The price of Shanghai platinum dropped by - 7.98 to 540.95, with a percentage drop of - 0.015%. The price of London platinum dropped by - 91.00 to 2066.00, with a percentage drop of - 0.042%. The prices of Zhou Dafu and Lao Fengxiang platinum changed by 10.00 and 0.00 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.012% and 0.000% [1] - Palladium Spot: The price of Chinese palladium increased by 7.00 to 397.00, with a percentage increase of 0.018%. The price of Russian palladium increased by 137.41 to 4353.60, with a percentage increase of 0.033% [1] 3.3 Inventory - Platinum Inventory: The NYMEX inventory and registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 582,440.79 and 313,567.94 ounces respectively. The turnover of the Gold Exchange decreased by 3403.6 to 108.19 million yuan, and the trading volume decreased by 62.0 to 2.00 kilograms [1] - Palladium Inventory: The NYMEX inventory and registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 200,716.01 and 164,229.68 ounces respectively [1] 3.4 Related Derivatives - Related Indexes: The US dollar index increased by 0.74 to 100.30, the S&P 500 index decreased by - 91.39 to 6,624.70, the US Treasury yield increased by 0.06 to 4.26, the Nasdaq index decreased by - 327.11 to 22,152.42, the Dow Jones index decreased by - 768.11 to 46,225.15, and the US dollar to RMB exchange rate decreased by - 0.01 to 6.89 [1] - Gold and Silver Futures: The prices of Shanghai gold futures contracts 2604, 2606, and 2608 decreased by - 2.68, - 2.40, and - 2.92 respectively. The prices of Shanghai silver futures contracts 2604, 2606, and 2608 decreased by - 374, - 328, and - 314 respectively [1] 3.5 Macro News - Fed Interest Rate Decision: The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75%, with a 11 - 1 vote. Fed Governor Milan opposed the decision, advocating a 25 - basis - point rate cut. The dot plot shows only one rate cut in 2026 and 2027, indicating a more conservative rate - cut path [2] - Geopolitical Tension: US - Israeli military strikes on Iran have disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz [2] - Fed Chair Nomination: US President Trump nominated former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. However, some senators oppose the nomination, and the process and subsequent policy independence are uncertain [2] - PBOC Meeting: The People's Bank of China held a 2026 payment and settlement work meeting, aiming to promote the high - quality development of the modern payment system, including accelerating the construction of the RMB cross - border payment system and strengthening regulatory measures [3]