——3月美联储议息会议点评2026年第2期：鲍威尔暗示未来降息空间有限

Monetary Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% during the March meeting, removing the statement about stabilization in the labor market[3] - Economic growth expectations for 2026 were raised by 0.1% to 2.4%, while core PCE inflation expectations were increased by 0.2% to 2.7%[3] - The dot plot indicates potential rate cuts in 2026 and 2027, with a neutral rate rising to 3.1%, suggesting challenges in achieving two rate cuts[3][6] Economic Projections - The GDP growth forecast for 2026 was adjusted from 2.3% to 2.4%, and for 2027 from 2% to 2.3%[7] - Core PCE inflation expectations for 2026 increased from 2.5% to 2.7%, while the unemployment rate forecast for 2026 remained at 4.4%[7] Inflation and Geopolitical Risks - High oil prices are pushing long-term U.S. Treasury yields higher, negatively impacting corporate earnings outlooks, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions[3][9] - The Fed's discussions highlighted uncertainties in inflation paths due to tariff impacts and energy price fluctuations, complicating monetary policy decisions[8] Future Rate Cut Considerations - Powell indicated limited space for further rate cuts, with the neutral rate now close to the lower bound of the federal funds rate, making it difficult to realize expectations for two rate cuts[8] - Internal discussions about potential rate hikes are in early stages, with some FOMC members suggesting future actions may include rate increases[9]