3?FOMC 会议点评：不转松的美联储，降息越来越远？

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has maintained its target range for the federal funds rate at 5.00%-5.25% for the second consecutive meeting, indicating a divergence in opinions regarding the necessity of rate cuts among committee members [1][2] - The economic outlook has been adjusted, with GDP growth and inflation expectations being raised, reflecting a stronger assessment of economic resilience [1][2] - The macroeconomic environment is shifting from "demand-driven inflation decline" to a combination of "stable growth but sticky inflation," which increases constraints on policy easing [1][2] Economic Forecasts - GDP growth forecasts for 2026, 2027, and 2028 have been revised upward to 2.4%, 2.1%, and 2.1% respectively, while the long-term forecast remains at 2.0% [10] - The unemployment rate is projected to remain stable at 4.4% for 2026, with slight improvements in subsequent years [10] - Core PCE inflation forecasts have been adjusted to 2.7% for 2026, indicating a slower pace of inflation decline than previously expected [10] Market Reactions - U.S. Treasury yields have risen across the board, with the 10-year yield increasing to 3.50%, reflecting a shift in rate cut expectations and inflation outlook [3][2] - The equity markets experienced declines, with major indices such as the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq falling by 1.5%, 1.2%, and 1.1% respectively [3][2] - The CME interest rate futures indicate that the market has largely priced out the possibility of rate cuts in 2026, with probabilities showing a strong preference for maintaining current rates [3][9] Asset Class Outlook - The outlook for U.S. Treasury yields suggests that short-term rates will remain sticky, while long-term rates are expected to rise, with the 10-year yield projected to range between 3.50%-3.75% [3][2] - Gold prices are under pressure from rising real interest rates, but if geopolitical conflicts persist, the macro environment may shift towards "high inflation + slowing growth," supporting gold prices in the range of $1,800-$2,000 per ounce [3][2] - Oil prices are expected to rise due to supply uncertainties from geopolitical tensions, with Brent crude projected to move to a range of $90-$100 per barrel if conflicts extend [3][2]