格林大华期货早盘提示：三油-20260319

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the vegetable oil sector, due to the fading of macro - sentiment, the market re - assesses the fundamental supply pressure, and funds flow out of the vegetable oil sector. It is recommended to exit long positions in oils and fats, and aggressive investors can try short positions in small amounts. Do not recommend chasing long positions [1][2]. - For the double - meal sector, considering the weakening of the external market, the decline in import costs, and the gradual recovery of Brazilian shipments, it is recommended to exit long positions at low levels and try short positions in small amounts [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oil Market 3.1.1 Market Performance - On March 18, the prices of major and secondary contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all declined, with palm oil leading the decline. For example, the soybean oil main contract Y2605 closed at 8,540 yuan/ton, down 1.20% day - on - day, and the palm oil main contract P2605 closed at 9,692 yuan/ton, down 2.63% day - on - day [1]. 3.1.2 Important Information - On March 18, NYMEX crude oil futures rose due to the attack on the South Pars Gas Field in Iran. The U.S. oil main contract rose 3.68% to $99.05 per barrel, and the Brent oil main contract rose 5.7% to $105.06 per barrel [1]. - The U.S. President Trump may announce the final rule on biofuel blending at an event on March 27. Indonesia is accelerating the road test of B50 biodiesel. There are rumors that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency will issue a new renewable fuel blending rule [1]. - The Malaysian MPOB report shows that at the end of February, the inventory decreased by 3.94% to 2.7 million tons, the production decreased by 18.55% to 1.28 million tons, and the exports decreased by 22.48% to 1.13 million tons [1]. - From March 1 - 15, Malaysia's palm oil product exports increased by 56.9% compared with the same period last month [1]. - As of the 11th weekend of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China increased by 0.46% week - on - week to 2.0557 million tons [1]. 3.1.3 Spot Market - As of March 18, the average spot price of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,820 yuan/ton, with a basis of 280 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton. The average spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,860 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton, with a basis of 168 yuan/ton, up 162 yuan/ton. The spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,280 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton, with a basis of 500 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton. The palm oil import profit was - 583.25 yuan/ton [2]. 3.1.4 Market Logic - Although the international crude oil has risen sharply, the domestic vegetable oil market's willingness to follow the rise is hesitant. The soybean oil basis increase is currently due to psychological factors, and it will be significantly boosted when the supply decreases at the end of the month [2]. 3.1.5 Trading Strategy - Exit long positions in oils and fats, and aggressive investors can try short positions in small amounts. Provide support and resistance levels for different contracts [2]. 3.2 Double - Meal Market 3.2.1 Market Performance - On March 18, domestic double - meal prices opened lower and moved lower, with rapeseed meal falling more than soybean meal. For example, the soybean meal main contract M2605 closed at 3,036 yuan/ton, down 1.11% day - on - day [2]. 3.2.2 Important Information - The average forecast of 9 analysts shows that the U.S. soybean crushing volume in February may reach a record high for that month [2]. - Due to the conflict in the Middle East, the soybean exports of Brazil and the United States may decline in the future, and the risk of rising shipping and insurance costs is increasing [2]. - China still promises to buy 25 million tons of U.S. soybeans annually in the next three years [2]. - The estimated soybean exports of Brazil in March 2026 are 16.09 million tons, an increase of 2.2% compared with March 2025 [3]. - As of the 11th weekend of 2026, the domestic imported soybean inventory decreased by 284,700 tons compared with last week, the domestic soybean meal inventory decreased by 18.71% week - on - week, and the contract volume decreased by 6.72% week - on - week. The domestic imported rapeseed inventory increased by 10,000 tons compared with last week, the domestic imported rapeseed meal inventory increased by 33.33% week - on - week, and the contract volume increased by 65.22% week - on - week [3]. 3.2.3 Spot Market - As of March 18, the spot price of soybean meal was 3,395 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton, and the spot price of rapeseed meal was 2,670 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton. Provide basis and trading volume information [3]. 3.2.4 Market Logic - The U.S. soybeans stop falling and stabilize due to China's promise to purchase. The import cost decreases and the Brazilian shipments recover, which suppresses the price. The short - term spot price is expected to weaken. The Zhengzhou rapeseed meal main contract has limited downward space in the short term [3]. 3.2.5 Trading Strategy - Exit existing long positions and try short positions in small amounts. Provide support and resistance levels for different contracts [3].