格林大华期货早盘提示白糖，红枣，橡胶系-20260319

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Sugar in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock sector is rated as "Oscillating" [1] - Rubber series in the energy and chemical sector: natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, and synthetic rubber are rated as "Oscillating" for natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber, and "Oscillating and Bullish" for synthetic rubber [5] Core Views - For sugar, the external market saw ICE raw sugar rise due to geopolitical conflicts boosting oil prices and affecting Brazil's new - season sugar - making ratio. The domestic market had a significant decline in Zhengzhou sugar due to the weak performance of the agricultural product sector and weak domestic reality, but recovered some losses at night. The short - term market is in a long - short game between weak reality and strong expectations, and the market is expected to oscillate [1] - For rubber series, natural rubber followed the overall decline of commodities and is under pressure from the start of tapping in Yunnan and Laos. The downstream tire factory's operation is stable, and the short - term fundamentals are neutral to weak. Synthetic rubber's BR fell slightly and then rose due to geopolitical news. The supply of butadiene supports its price, but downstream acceptance is limited. The short - term trend may be volatile due to the unpredictability of the war situation [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar Market Information - SR605 contract closed at 5343 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 1.17%, and 5398 yuan/ton at night; SR609 contract closed at 5470 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 1.21%, and 5427 yuan/ton at night [1] - ICE raw sugar's main contract was 14.82 cents/pound yesterday with a daily increase of 2.42% [1] - Guangxi's white sugar spot transaction price was 5377 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton; Guangxi sugar - making group's quotation range was 5390 - 5490 yuan/ton, down 20 - 30 yuan/ton; Yunnan sugar - making group's quotation was 5270 - 5320 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the mainstream quotation range of processing sugar mills was 5670 - 5880 yuan/ton, mostly down 20 - 30 yuan/ton [1] - As of March 15, 2026, India's 2025/26 sugar - making season sugar production reached 26.214 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 10.5% [1] - In January - February 2026, China's sugar imports were 280,000 tons and 240,000 tons respectively, a year - on - year increase of 217,000 tons and 223,900 tons respectively. From January to February 2026, China's cumulative sugar imports were 520,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 440,900 tons. As of the end of February in the 2025/26 sugar - making season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 2.2826 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 741,700 tons [1] - Thailand's sugar - making industry recently called for the promotion of E20 ethanol gasoline to strengthen energy security [1] - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's white sugar warehouse receipts were 16,342 yesterday, with a daily increase of 0 [1] Market Logic - External market: ICE raw sugar rose. Geopolitical conflicts in overseas areas strengthened oil prices, which affected Brazil's new - season sugar - making ratio and boosted sugar prices. As the main sugar - making countries in the Northern Hemisphere are approaching the end of the sugar - making season, the market's attention is turning to Brazil in the Southern Hemisphere. Short - term macro and event disturbances still exist, and the technical side shows a strong trend [1] - Domestic market: Zhengzhou sugar dropped significantly yesterday. The weak performance of the agricultural product sector and the weak domestic reality pressure caused the main contract to quickly break through the integer mark, and then stabilized near MA20. The significant increase in domestic sugar imports in January and February and the expected domestic production increase in this sugar - making season have been basically achieved. The current domestic supply - demand structure is relatively loose. The obvious signal of long - position funds leaving the market is the main reason for the sharp decline. However, at night, affected by the external market, Zhengzhou sugar recovered some losses. In the short term, Zhengzhou sugar is still in a long - short game between weak reality and strong expectations, and the market is expected to oscillate [1] Trading Strategy - Temporarily wait and see, and pay attention to the support near 5350 [1] Rubber Series Market Information - As of March 18, the closing price of the RU main contract was 16,400 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 2.38%; the closing price of the NR main contract was 13,105 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 2.71%; the closing price of the BR main contract was 15,260 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.74% [5] - Yesterday, the price of Thai raw material glue was 73.5 Thai baht/kg (0.5/1%), the price of cup rubber was 58.5 Thai baht/kg (0/0%), and the price of Yunnan rubber blocks was 13,500 yuan/ton (0/0%) [5] - As of March 15, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 677,600 tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 0.42%. The bonded area inventory was 121,300 tons, an increase of 1.43%; the general trade inventory was 556,300 tons, a decrease of 0.81%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses increased by 1.71 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.71 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.37 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.22 percentage points [5] - Yesterday, the price of whole latex was 16,250 yuan/ton, - 400/-2.4%; the price of 20 - grade Thai standard was 1,980 US dollars/ton, - 35/-1.74%, equivalent to 13,644 yuan/ton in RMB; the price of 20 - grade Thai mixed rubber was 15,300 yuan/ton, - 300/-1.92% [5] - Yesterday, the price difference between the RU and NR main contracts was 3,250 yuan/ton, a contraction of 80 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price difference between the mixed standard rubber and the RU main contract was - 1,100 yuan/ton, a contraction of 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [5] - Yesterday, the delivery price in the central Shandong region was 14,700 - 14,900 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was about 15,000 - 15,100 yuan/ton [5] - Yesterday, the market prices of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber fell. The price of Daqing BR9000 in the Shandong market dropped 200 yuan/ton to 15,300 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene 1502 in the Shandong market dropped 100 yuan/ton to 15,700 yuan/ton [5] Market Logic - Natural rubber: Natural rubber followed the overall decline of commodities yesterday and oscillated at night. The start of tapping in Yunnan and Laos put pressure on rubber prices. The operation of downstream tire factories was stable, and the impact of geopolitics was relatively limited. In the short term, the fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral to weak, and the technical side slightly broke through the lower edge of the channel. Recently, pay attention to whether the trend of synthetic rubber can boost natural rubber again [5] - Synthetic rubber: BR fell slightly yesterday and then rose again at night due to geopolitical news. The reduction in butadiene supply supported its price, but the actual acceptance of downstream enterprises was limited, and there were frequent news of enterprise production cuts, and poor transactions restricted the butadiene price. Affected by high raw material prices, the production loss of butadiene rubber continued, and there were more unplanned shutdowns. In the short term, due to the overseas situation, merchants still have a mentality of hoarding and bullishness. However, the unpredictability of the war situation may make its trend more volatile, and high - level wide - range oscillations may still be the norm in the near future [5] Trading Strategy - For RU and NR, pay attention to the support near M60; hold BR long positions in the short term [5]