国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20260319

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Iron ore shows a pattern of near - strong and far - weak, and the 5 - 9 positive spread should be held continuously [2][4]. - The market sentiment for rebar and hot - rolled coil is weak, and they will fluctuate widely [2][7]. - In the short term, due to the influence of the geopolitical situation, the long - short game of silicon iron and manganese silicon commodities intensifies [2][11]. - Coke and coking coal will fluctuate widely [2][14]. - The price of thermal coal is rising in the producing areas and stabilizing at the ports [2][17]. - The cost of logs is rising, and the price will fluctuate at a high level [2][19]. Group 3: Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Fundamental Data: The closing price of I2605 was 811.0 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan/ton (-0.67%); the open interest decreased by 6,207 hands. Spot prices of imported ores such as PB and super special decreased, while domestic ores remained stable. The basis and spreads changed to some extent [4]. - News: Near - term prices rebounded due to the escalation of the US - Iran conflict and potential restrictions on BHP iron ore purchases. The 2026 government work report adjusted the GDP growth target, and the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel enterprises decreased [4][5]. - Trend Intensity: 1 [5] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Fundamental Data: The closing price of RB2605 was 3,140 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (-0.10%); the closing price of HC2605 was 3,310 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.21%). Spot prices in most regions remained stable. There were changes in basis and spreads [7]. - News: In February 2026, the decline in the sales price of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities continued to narrow. There were changes in steel production, inventory, and demand. Import and export data of steel and iron ore also changed. The CPI rose, and the PPI decline narrowed. There were policies related to the "15th Five - Year Plan" and real estate [8][9]. - Trend Intensity: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [10] Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - Fundamental Data: The closing prices of silicon iron 2605 and 2607 decreased, as well as those of manganese silicon 2605 and 2607. Spot prices of silicon iron decreased, and that of manganese silicon increased. There were changes in basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads [11]. - News: There were price quotes from iron alloy online, and the daily output of silicon iron increased. Some steel mills determined the purchase prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon [11][13]. - Trend Intensity: 0 for both silicon iron and manganese silicon [13] Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamental Data: The closing price of JM2605 was 1156.5 yuan/ton, down 19.5 yuan/ton (-1.7%); the closing price of J2605 was 1721.5 yuan/ton, down 10.5 yuan/ton (-0.6%). Spot prices of coking coal and coke had some changes. There were changes in basis and spreads [14]. - News: There were changes in the CCI metallurgical coal index. The coking coal online auction had a 10% non - successful bid rate and an average premium of 53.35 yuan/ton [14]. - Trend Intensity: 0 for both coke and coking coal [16] Thermal Coal - Fundamental Data: The prices in the producing areas such as Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi increased slightly, and the port prices remained stable. The long - term agreement prices increased slightly [17]. - News: The market sentiment in the northern ports was positive on March 18. The national raw coal output from January to February 2026 decreased slightly year - on - year [18]. - Trend Intensity: 0 [18] Logs - Fundamental Data: There were changes in the closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of log futures contracts. Spot prices in most regions remained stable, and there were changes in spreads [19]. - News: The 2026 government work report adjusted the GDP growth target, and there were real estate policies in Shanghai [21]. - Trend Intensity: 0 [22]