格林大华期货研究院专题报告：生猪养殖行业或将进入亏损驱动去产能的实质阶段

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pig - raising industry may enter the substantial stage of capacity reduction driven by losses. In the short - to - medium term, the pig price is expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating state, and in the long term, the supply reduction in the fourth quarter of 2026 may be relatively limited. The year 2026 is expected to be a year of breeding losses, and the pig price may run in the low - level range of 10 - 13 yuan/kg [3][6][7] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 2026 Pig Supply and Demand Logic and Future Views - Supply: The supply inflection point has emerged. The inventory of fertile sows in December 2025 was 39.61 million, 101.6% of the normal inventory, with a smaller - than - expected decline. The inventory of fertile sows is not likely to decline significantly in the first quarter, so the supply reduction in the fourth quarter of 2026 may be limited. The number of new - born piglets from January to September 2025 increased month - on - month, with the peak of pig slaughter in March 2026. From October to December 2025, the number of new - born piglets decreased for three consecutive months, and the supply pressure has been alleviated since April. The number of new - born piglets in January 2026 increased by 1% month - on - month, corresponding to an increase in slaughter in July. The pig weight pressure has been continuously accumulating around the Spring Festival in 2026, and the current weight is at the highest level in the same period in recent years, resulting in heavy supply pressure in the pork market in March [3][4] - Consumption: It is currently the traditional seasonal consumption off - season, and the terminal consumption is weak. After the Spring Festival, the second - fattening group entered the market, but the overall number is limited, accounting for about 30%, and the support for the short - term pig price is limited, and it only leads to the post - ponement of phased supply. The slaughter and freezing of a small number of slaughterhouses have a slight bottom - supporting effect on the pig price, but the upward support is not obvious. The policy storage of 10,000 tons of frozen pork on March 4 had little impact on the market. It is necessary to pay attention to the quantity and rhythm of policy storage after triggering the first - level early warning of excessive decline [4][5][6] 2026 Pig Price Range Assumption under the Expectation of Pig - Raising Losses - 2026 Pig - Raising Cost Estimation: In 2025, the industry's breeding cost was 13 - 13.5 yuan/kg. In 2026, the average production efficiency of the industry is expected to increase, which can drive the cost down. However, due to the possible increase in the prices of corn and soybean meal and the possible decline in capacity utilization, it is difficult to drive the cost down. It is estimated that the average cost of the breeding end in 2026 may be flat or slightly lower than that in 2025, with the cost of excellent enterprises estimated at 12 - 12.5 yuan/kg and the industry cost estimated at 12.5 - 13 yuan/kg [7][8] - 2026 Pig Price Range Estimation: Assuming a loss of 1 - 1.5 yuan/kg in the industry in 2026, the average price of pigs in the industry this year is estimated to be 11 - 12 yuan/kg. Excluding the influence of policies and diseases, the pig price this year may run in the low - level range of 10 - 13 yuan/kg [8] Main Trading Logic of Pig Futures and Related Suggestions - Main Logic: In 2024, the main logic was the stage - rising market driven by diseases in the fourth quarter of 2023 and the expectation of pig - price decline driven by supply recovery in 2024. In 2025, the supply continued to recover, the center of the pig price moved down, and the breeding profit narrowed year - on - year. In 2026, the peak of the supply - increasing pressure driven by diseases in 2023 has appeared, and it has entered the substantial stage of capacity reduction, with the focus on trading the expectation difference of capacity reduction [9] - Monitoring Indicators: The process of capacity reduction at the breeding end can be tracked through piglet profit, sow - culling ratio/structure, and cash - flow status. Currently, the capacity reduction has started, but the overall duration is short, and the breeding end has not yet entered the substantial capacity - reduction stage [9] - Suggestions: Before the substantial capacity reduction occurs, it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying stocks in the breeding sector at low prices. Pig futures may continue to oscillate at the bottom. It is recommended that breeding enterprises continue to lock in breeding profits, and speculative funds are not recommended to blindly buy at the bottom. After the substantial capacity reduction is determined to occur, it is recommended that slaughter enterprises pay attention to the buying hedging opportunity of the far - month contracts of pig futures, and speculative funds pay attention to the low - buying opportunity of the far - month contracts of pig futures [9][10]