铁矿石：美联储不降息，矿价高位震荡

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core View - The macro - driving force remains weak, the short - term supply - demand relationship of iron ore has marginally improved, and geopolitical factors have increased the cost of iron ore. However, supply - demand changes and cost increases are not sufficient to support a rapid and substantial price increase. The short - term iron ore price is not determined by fundamentals, and the market speculation sentiment is overheated. In the long run, trade restrictions will not change the pattern of loose supply - demand, and the release of spot liquidity will put significant pressure on prices. [5] Group 3: Summary by Directory Logic - The Fed announced to keep interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations. The market is pricing in the impact of the Middle East conflict on US inflation. The interest rate dot - plot shows that the Fed will cut interest rates once this year. Fed Chairman Powell said US inflation is stubborn and the outlook uncertainty has increased. If there is no progress in inflation, there will be no rate cuts. The recent sharp rise in iron ore prices is due to concerns about restricted domestic spot trade liquidity, an irrational rise in iron ore swap prices, short - term high domestic supply, an upward cycle in demand, and a phased increase in shipping costs caused by the Middle East conflict. [3] Supply - Foreign ore supply has decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year due to the incomplete recovery of Brazilian supply affected by precipitation and concerns about the impact of US - Iran geopolitical factors on Iran's global iron ore supply. Domestic ore supply is expected to enter a seasonal recovery cycle. Overall, short - term supply - side pressure has decreased month - on - month. [3] Demand - The probability of super - expected growth in terminal demand is low. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking slope of steel inventories and the intensity of resumption of work. According to seasonal patterns, domestic iron ore demand will enter a recovery cycle from late March. Short - term trade restrictions have also strengthened speculative demand, and domestic iron ore demand is expected to be supported. [4] Inventory - Steel mills maintain a low - inventory operation mode and are cautious in procurement, with short - term restocking needs. Current port inventories are still accumulating, and short - term port inventory pressure remains high. However, with the recovery of domestic demand and trade restrictions, there are still structural contradictions in domestic inventories and an expectation of inventory de - stocking. [5] Price - The expected price range is 104 - 109 US dollars per ton (61% index), corresponding to 790 - 825 yuan per ton for Dalian iron ore futures. [5] Strategy - The strategy is to conduct range operations and sell call options. [5]