宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20260319

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is in a tug - of - war between short - term supply rhythm concerns and the long - term reality of a global soybean supply surplus, with prices in a wide - range oscillation. The risk premium driven by short - term concerns is not solid, and once the Brazilian logistics bottleneck eases, the premium will decline [5]. - The palm oil market is in a fierce game between strong expectations and weak reality. Short - term prices will maintain a wide - range oscillation, and the trend highly depends on factors such as the persistence of crude oil prices, the implementation of the US RVO policy, and the domestic inventory depletion rhythm [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs For Soybean Meal (M) - Short - term, Medium - term, and Daily View: All are considered "oscillating on the strong side". The core logic is that the uncertainty on the supply side makes the near - month contracts the focus of multi - empty gaming. The market is switching from trading short - term risks to returning to fundamental reality. The price is affected by the tension between short - term supply rhythm concerns and the long - term global soybean supply surplus [5][6]. - Influential Factors: Imported soybean cost, arrival rhythm of imports, oil mill operation rhythm, and inventory pressure [6]. For Palm Oil (P) - Short - term, Medium - term, and Daily View: All are considered "oscillating on the strong side". The core logic is the conflict between strong expectations and weak reality. Geopolitical conflicts and market expectations about Malaysian palm oil production and exports support the price, while high domestic inventory and weak consumption drag it down. The price will maintain a wide - range oscillation [7]. - Influential Factors: Energy attributes, Indonesian biodiesel policy expectations, cost increase, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [6][7]. For Soybean Oil (Y) - Short - term, Medium - term, and Daily View: All are considered "oscillating on the strong side". - Influential Factors: Energy attributes, US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, imported soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6].