养殖油脂产业链月度策略报告-20260319

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Soybean Oil: The price of soybean oil followed the decline of international oil prices. Although the positive drivers persisted, the amplitude increased. It was recommended to reduce long positions in the main contract or consider buying put options for protection. The support level of the main 05 contract was 8450 - 8500 yuan/ton, and the resistance level was 8950 - 9000 yuan/ton [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The short - term rapeseed oil market might continue to resonate with crude oil and Canadian rapeseed prices. It was suggested to wait for the market to stabilize and then go long at low prices. The support level of the 05 contract was 9450 - 9460, and the resistance level was 10000 - 10100 [1]. - Palm Oil: Although there were positive factors in exports and biodiesel, the risk of a sharp decline in oil prices due to geopolitical easing needed to be noted. It was advisable to wait for the market to stabilize and then replenish long positions. The support level of the main contract was 9400 - 9410, and the resistance level was 10200 - 10220 [2]. - Soybean No. 2 and Soybean Meal: The cost - side support was expected to continue, and the callback space was limited. It was recommended to go long after the market stabilized, and a conservative strategy could be combined with option positions. Short - selling was not recommended [3][4]. - Rapeseed Meal: The cost side still had support, but due to the repeated geopolitical news, the short - term price might fluctuate. It was advisable to wait for the market to stabilize and then look for long - entry opportunities [4]. - Corn and Corn Starch: The price was expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term, and there was an upward trend in the medium term. It was recommended to look for opportunities to go long at low prices, and for options, it was advisable to sell out - of - the - money put options [5]. - Soybean No. 1: Although the valuation was high, there were still positive drivers. It was recommended to reduce long positions. The support level of the 05 contract was 4750 - 4800 yuan/ton, and the resistance level was 5000 - 5050 yuan/ton [6]. - Pigs: The far - month futures contracts had a premium over the near - term spot and near - month contracts. Conservative investors could hold long positions in far - month contracts, while radical investors could wait for the spot pressure to be released and then go long lightly near the 2607 contract. Option strategies could be used [7]. - Eggs: The supply - demand pressure might continue to improve. Conservative investors were advised to wait and see, while radical investors could go long the 05 contract below 3400 points. Short - selling near the historical low range of near - month contracts was not recommended [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Analysis - Soybean No. 1 05: It was expected to fluctuate widely. It was recommended to wait and see temporarily [10]. - Soybean No. 2 05: It was expected to fluctuate widely. It was recommended to wait and see temporarily [10]. - Soybean Oil 05: It was expected to fluctuate widely. It was recommended to go long after the market stabilized [10]. - Rapeseed Oil 05: It was expected to fluctuate. It was recommended to wait and see temporarily [10]. - Palm 05: It was expected to rise with fluctuations. It was recommended to replenish long positions after the market stabilized [10]. - Soybean Meal 05: It was expected to fluctuate. It was recommended to go long after the market stabilized [10]. - Rapeseed Meal 05: It was expected to fluctuate. It was recommended to go long after the market stabilized [10]. - Corn 05: It was expected to fluctuate within a range. It was recommended to go long at low prices [10]. - Starch 05: It was expected to fluctuate within a range. It was recommended to go long at low prices [10]. - Pigs 05: It was expected to find the bottom with fluctuations. It was recommended to wait and see [10]. - Eggs 05: It was expected to find the bottom with fluctuations. It was recommended to wait and see [10]. 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - Inter - month Arbitrage: Most varieties were recommended to wait and see, while for corn 5 - 9, it was recommended to go short at high prices, and for pigs 5 - 7, it was recommended to hold reverse arbitrage positions [11][12]. - Inter - commodity Arbitrage: Most varieties were recommended to wait and see, while for the 05 beans oil - meal ratio and 05 rapeseed oil - meal ratio, it was recommended to take a long - biased approach [12]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provided the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties, including soybean No. 1, soybean No. 2, peanuts, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, palm oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, corn, starch, pigs, and eggs [13]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oilseeds and Oils - Daily Data: It included the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping dates, such as the arrival premium, futures prices, CNF prices, and arrival duty - paid prices [15][16]. - Weekly Data: It showed the inventory changes and operating rates of various oilseeds and oils, such as the inventory of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseeds, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, peanuts, and peanut oil [18]. 3.2.2 Feed - Daily Data: It provided the import cost data of corn from different countries and months, including CNF prices and arrival duty - paid costs [18]. - Weekly Data: It included the weekly data of corn and corn starch, such as the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and farmers' grain - selling progress [19]. 3.2.3 Livestock Farming - It provided the daily and weekly data of pigs and eggs, including spot prices, key data such as breeding costs, profits, slaughter data, and supply - demand data [19][20][21][22]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - Livestock Farming (Pigs and Eggs): It included the closing prices of the main contracts, spot prices, and related price charts of pigs and eggs [25][27][31]. - Oilseeds and Oils: It included the production, export, inventory, and other related charts of palm oil, soybean oil, and peanuts [34][41][46]. - Feed: It included the price, basis, inventory, and other related charts of corn, corn starch, rapeseed, and soybean meal [50][58][65][77]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Option Situations of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils It provided the historical volatility charts of various varieties such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio charts of corn options [92][93]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situations of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils It provided the warehouse receipt quantity charts of various varieties such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs, as well as the open interest charts of pigs and eggs [95][98].