碳酸锂数据日报-20260319

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The upper pressure and lower support of lithium carbonate futures prices are obvious. The upper pressure mainly comes from the continuous heating up of the US - Iran situation, triggering the market's re - inflation expectation and risk - aversion sentiment. The lower support is due to strong demand, with the production schedules of battery factories in April and May rising month - on - month, driving the release of the purchasing demand for lithium carbonate. In the short term, due to the unclear macro - situation, investors are advised to participate with caution [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 155,500 yuan, with a decrease of 2,500 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 152,500 yuan, with a decrease of 2,000 yuan. The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 3,000 yuan, with a decrease of 500 yuan [1][2] Futures Contracts - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2604 is 149,880 yuan, with a decline of 4.74%; lithium carbonate 2605 is 150,120 yuan, with a decline of 4.43%; lithium carbonate 2606 is 150,040 yuan, with a decline of 3.56%; lithium carbonate 2607 is 149,600 yuan, with a decline of 4.52%; lithium carbonate 2608 is 150,000 yuan, with a decline of 4.69% [1] Lithium Ore - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 2,157 yuan, with a decrease of 28 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 3,225 yuan, with a decrease of 135 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 4,800 yuan, with a decrease of 160 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 12,550 yuan, with a decrease of 175 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 13,625 yuan, with a decrease of 200 yuan [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 54,870 yuan, with a decrease of 605 yuan; ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 211,800 yuan, with a decrease of 500 yuan; ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 183,950 yuan, with a decrease of 800 yuan; ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 185,650 yuan, with a decrease of 600 yuan [2] Price Spreads - The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 3,000 yuan, with a decrease of 500 yuan; the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 5,380 yuan, with an increase of 2,700 yuan; the price difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 240 yuan, with a decrease of 360 yuan; the price difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 160 yuan, with a decrease of 1,020 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 98,959 tons, with a decrease of 414 tons; the smelter inventory (weekly, tons) is 16,292 tons, with a decrease of 1,184 tons; the downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 45,647 tons, with an increase of 1,890 tons; the other inventory (weekly, tons) is 37,020 tons, with a decrease of 1,120 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 35,769 tons, with a decrease of 696 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 154,180 yuan, and the profit is - 680 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 145,659 yuan, and the profit is 4,614 yuan [3] Policy News - The US decided not to impose tariffs on battery materials imported from China, and the US International Trade Commission found that imports did not cause damage to the domestic industry [3]