碳酸锂日报：供应端修复的预期频现，碳酸锂价格挑战现实需求-20260319

Group 1: Carbonate Lithium Futures Market Data Changes - The carbonated lithium futures main contract closed at 150,120 yuan/ton on March 18, 2026, a slight decrease of 3.35% from 155,320 yuan/ton on March 17, 2026 [1][5][34][55]. - The basis was 5,880 yuan/ton on March 18, 2026, a significant strengthening of 119.4% from 2,680 yuan/ton on the previous day [1][5][34][55]. - The main contract's open interest was 307,422 lots on March 18, 2026, a contraction of 0.46% from the previous day. The trading volume was 205,889 lots, an expansion of 18.71% from the previous day [1][5][35][55]. Group 2: Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes Supply Side - The market price of spodumene concentrate was 16,705 yuan/ton on March 18, 2026, a decline of 5.19% from the previous day. The price of lepidolite concentrate remained stable at 9,150 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of carbonate lithium was 73.46% on March 13, 2026, the same as the previous week. Upstream lithium salt producers were reluctant to sell and had a clear attitude of supporting prices, with a weak willingness to sell scattered orders, indicating a tight supply side [2][5][37][55]. Demand Side - The market price of battery - grade carbonate lithium was 156,000 yuan/ton on March 18, 2026, a slight decline of 1.27% from the previous day. The prices of downstream cathode materials such as power - type ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate decreased slightly, while the cell prices remained stable. According to the data from the Passenger Car Association on February 11, 2026, the retail and wholesale of new energy vehicles increased year - on - year, but the cumulative retail decreased year - on - year. Downstream material producers adopted a strategy of purchasing at low prices, which drove the restocking demand and increased the trading activity [2][5][38][55]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The carbonate lithium inventory was 98,959 physical tons on March 13, 2026, a decrease of 0.42% from the previous week, indicating a slight reduction in inventory, which reflected the support of the demand - side restocking behavior for destocking [2][5][42][56]. Group 3: Price Trend Judgment - It is expected that the carbonate lithium futures price will maintain a range - bound pattern in the next one to two weeks. The supply side is supported by the upstream's price - supporting behavior, and the decline in raw material costs may relieve production pressure but does not significantly increase supply elasticity. The new energy vehicle sales data on the demand side is divided. The downstream's low - price purchasing provides support, but the year - on - year decline in cumulative retail sales shows the uncertainty of demand recovery. The slight decrease in inventory indicates a relatively balanced supply - demand situation, and the market sentiment is cautious. In summary, the carbonate lithium market lacks a one - sided driving factor in the short term, and the oscillating trend may continue. Investors need to closely monitor the changes in raw material prices and the downstream purchasing rhythm [3][44][56].