伊朗能源设施遭袭，地缘升温再次推动油价上扬

Crude Oil Futures Market Data Change Analysis - Main Contracts and Basis: On March 18, 2026, the price of the SC main contract was reported at 735.4 yuan per barrel, a significant drop of 25.8 yuan or 3.39% from the previous day's 761.2 yuan. The WTI main contract price remained stable at 95.3 US dollars per barrel, and the Brent main contract price also stayed at 103.5 US dollars per barrel. The SC-Brent spread weakened from 7.02 US dollars per barrel to 3.45 US dollars per barrel, a decline of 50.85%. The SC-WTI spread decreased from 15.22 US dollars per barrel to 11.65 US dollars per barrel, a drop of 23.46%. The Brent-WTI spread remained stable at 8.2 US dollars per barrel, and the SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread fell from 32.2 yuan per barrel to 28.3 yuan per barrel, a decline of 12.11%. Overall, the spreads generally weakened, indicating the relative weakness of SC [1]. - Position and Trading Volume: No relevant data provided [75] Industrial Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Change Analysis - Supply Side: The supply side faces multiple disturbances. An Indian government official reported that 1.6 million tons of oil tankers were stranded in the Strait of Hormuz, which may limit exports in the short term. Iran attacked a Saudi oil - gas refinery in Riyadh, destroying fuel reserves and causing a fire, affecting the stability of Middle - East supply. Overall, the supply side is affected by geopolitics (such as the Iranian attack) and capacity changes. Additionally, Vietnam's domestic crude oil production is expected to decline in the future, while Italy's Eni Group expects to increase natural gas and condensate production [2][8]. - Demand Side: There is uncertainty on the demand side. Several Japanese petrochemical companies announced production cuts on March 18, worried that the Middle - East conflict would lead to a tight supply of naphtha, which may drag down the demand for plastic raw materials. The Trump administration may cancel the summer gasoline regulations to suppress energy prices, potentially increasing gasoline demand. Overall, the demand side is affected by refinery device adjustments and refined - oil policies, with weak Asian demand and fluctuations caused by policy changes in Europe and the United States [2]. - Inventory Side: Inventory signals are divided. The Iranian attack on the Saudi refinery may damage oil and gas facility inventories, affecting short - term reserves. As of the week ending March 13, EIA reported that crude oil inventories increased by 6.2 million barrels to 449.3 million barrels, while analysts had previously expected an increase of only 383,000 barrels. The crude oil inventory at the Cushing delivery center in Oklahoma increased by 944,000 barrels that week, reaching the highest level since August 2024. US gasoline inventories decreased by 5.4 million barrels to 244 million barrels that week, and distillate inventories (including diesel and heating oil) decreased by 2.5 million barrels to 116.9 million barrels. Indian government officials stated that the gasoline and diesel inventories at gas stations are sufficient [2][10]. Price Trend Judgment Crude oil prices may continue to strengthen in the short term. The reason is that supply - side disturbances have intensified. Middle - East geopolitical conflicts (such as the Iranian attack on the Saudi refinery and the stranding of Indian oil tankers) may tighten supply in the short term. Overall, supply elasticity and geopolitical risks dominate the market. If geopolitical tensions escalate, it may continue to drive prices up in the short term [3]